Monthly Risk Spotlight: February 2026

AMERICAS

Rising Risk: Latin America’s 2026 Election Cycle and What It Means for Travelers
With more than half of Latin America’s population heading to the polls in 2026, the region is entering a pivotal election year shaped by political turbulence. Seven countries, including Brazil, Chile, and Peru, are undergoing presidential transitions. While elections are a regular feature of the democratic calendar, the simultaneous timing of multiple high-profile races may place added strain on already sensitive political environments. For travelers, this means more than just political theatre; it signals a year of shifting ground realities, where security conditions, access, and itineraries may change with little warning.

In Brazil, the aftershocks of the 2022 election continue to shape the political landscape. The storming of government buildings in Brasília exposed deep political polarization, divisions that have only continued to intensify. As 2026 unfolds, the environment is already charged. AI-generated misinformation is likely to amplify tensions, with manipulated videos or false protest reports shaping public opinion in real time. For those navigating the country’s major cities, this can create a fog of uncertainty: traffic-clogging demonstrations can emerge rapidly, and transport strikes tied to political factions may paralyze movement. Rumor control becomes a critical travel skill, and verifying information through reliable local sources is essential to avoid inadvertently entering areas affected by unrest.

Chile, long considered one of the region’s more stable destinations, is seeing that reputation tested. The 2025 elections brought a new government to power, but the transition coincides with a visible surge in violent crime and public unease over migration. As a result, travelers may find Santiago and other urban centers marked by issue-based demonstrations. Concerns surrounding organized crime and the politicization of migration policy are creating friction points in public discourse, often spilling into street-level action that can snarl transportation or delay access to airports and medical facilities. While Chile still retains strong institutional resilience, friction around public safety and national identity is narrowing the space for smooth movement.

In Peru, political instability is less a cycle than a constant. The country has seen eight presidents in ten years. With approval ratings in single digits and a fragmented electorate divided along geographic and socioeconomic lines, 2026’s vote risks triggering more of the same: nationwide protests, prolonged highway blockades, and paralysis in transport-dependent sectors. Previous disruptions have shuttered rail links to Machu Picchu and left travelers stranded in Cusco, unable to move due to protester roadblocks or fuel shortages. Even short trips to iconic destinations now entail contingency planning; from backup accommodation to shelter-in-place protocols should tension flare.

Across the region, a broader pattern is visible. Political transitions regularly redirect state attention and stretch law enforcement resources. This creates gaps, sometimes temporary, sometimes enduring, in public safety capacity. In high-risk zones or crime-prone neighborhoods, these gaps can expose travelers to opportunistic crime or leave them vulnerable if demonstrations escalate. Equally, regulatory shifts common during new administrations, such as changes to migration rules, airport screening policies, or regional curfews, can catch even seasoned travelers off guard.

The implications for those moving through Latin America in 2026 are clear: this is not a year for static assumptions or copy-paste security protocols. Travelers should prioritize agility: building buffer time into itineraries, selecting lodging with backup power and reliable connectivity, and staying closely in touch with trusted local intelligence sources. For organizations sending personnel or students abroad, this moment calls for updated travel risk frameworks that account for the uneven pace of political change and the increasingly digital nature of disruption.

Latin America remains a vibrant and rewarding region to explore. But in an election year defined by uncertainty, awareness and adaptability will be the best guides.

MIDDLE EAST & NORTH AFRICA (MENA)

Iran Unrest and the United States (U.S.) Military Posturing: Regional Implications for Travel
Ongoing instability in Iran continues to amplify uncertainty throughout the Middle East. Protests against the current administration were forcefully suppressed, resulting in widespread violence, arrests, and a nationwide communications blackout. These developments were met with strong condemnation by international powers, including from the United States (U.S.), forcing a temporary airspace closure and heightened U.S. military posturing.

Elevated U.S.-Iran tensions increase risk exposure for travelers, maritime operations, and businesses operating in or transiting through the region. The potential for further escalation raises the possibility of airspace restrictions, disruptions to energy infrastructure, cyber incidents, and interruptions at major transit hubs. As conditions evolve, organizations should strengthen travel risk management protocols and maintain close monitoring of official aviation and security advisories.

Historical precedent demonstrates that air embargoes targeting a single country frequently produce broader ripple effects across the region. In recent developments, major carriers, including Air France, KLM, and the Lufthansa Group, have announced the suspension of flights to Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) due to safety concerns and ongoing assessments of airspace restrictions. Similar events occurred in June 2025 following joint U.S.-Israel attacks on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, which led to significant airspace closures across Israel, Jordan, Iraq, and Syria. These incidents underscore the interconnected nature of regional air traffic and highlight the importance of continuous monitoring through official aviation intelligence resources, as similar reactions to threats and regional instability are likely.

Following President Donald Trump’s opposition to Iran’s crackdown, a U.S. aircraft carrier was deployed to the Middle East. This move, coupled with the temporary evacuation of U.S. personnel from Al Udeid Air Base (Qatar) and the brief closure of Iranian airspace, signals the potential for increased military activity in the region. While the U.S. carrier fleet is likely intended to deter a strong Iranian response to ongoing unrest, it also risks being perceived as provocative, potentially compounding regional instability. If direct conflict remains contained, even limited disruptions could have significant implications for regional travel, particularly for Gulf states that function as critical global transit and logistics hubs.

Organizations are encouraged to maintain accurate, real-time headcounts of employees in the region, utilize travel-tracking technologies, and require regular check-ins. Establishing clear communication channels is essential to ensure the timely dissemination of updates and operational guidance. To strengthen awareness of geopolitical threats, organizations can partner with a travel risk management provider to support intelligence briefings, proactively adjust travel itineraries, identify high-risk destinations early, and develop rapid-response plans. These measures can help organizations anticipate and respond to changing regional conditions while meeting their duty-of-care obligations.

In the near term, the operating environment is expected to remain erratic, characterized by sudden airspace restrictions, heightened security alerts, and fluctuating risk levels for aviation and energy infrastructure. Even in the absence of a direct military escalation, increased threat perceptions and regulatory caution are likely to drive conservative operational decisions by airlines and civil aviation authorities. This means there will be more frequent schedule changes, flight reroutes, and reduced capacity. Organizations that partake in scenario planning, real-time monitoring, and cross-functional crisis coordination will be better positioned to mitigate operational impact and maintain stakeholder confidence as conditions evolve.

ASIA PACIFIC (APAC)

Two Elections, Two Risk Profiles: Political Volatility and Travel Disruption in Thailand and Nepal
Political uncertainty linked to elections in Nepal and the recently concluded vote in Thailand has influenced the travel risk environment across the Asia‑Pacific (APAC) region. While Nepal’s electoral cycle remains a potential flashpoint, Thailand’s recently concluded vote has already demonstrated how quickly political developments can create an environment conducive to potential travel disruptions. The weeks before and after elections are the most volatile, when demonstrations, security deployments, and abrupt policy measures can quickly escalate threat levels. These threats often translate into overland transport disruptions, airport slowdowns, internet restrictions, or localized curfews with little advance warning. Understanding the political triggers unique to each election is key to anticipating where and when travel plans may be affected.

In Thailand, general elections took place in early February 2026. These elections unfolded against a backdrop of heightened political tensions caused by entrenched elite power struggles, nationalist sentiment, and the enduring influence of the Thai military. Recent military clashes with Cambodia and the ouster of a former prime minister inflamed tensions leading up to the elections. Combined, these issues energized right‑wing activists and royalist factions, both of which have historically mobilized rapidly in response to perceived threats to the political order.

While the election occurred without incident, Thailand’s history underscores a critical risk dynamic for travelers: unrest frequently escalates after voting has concluded, particularly during contested government formation processes. Coalition negotiations for control of Thailand’s House of Representatives are expected to last for several months after the election in February 2026. If outcomes are disputed, or if allegations of external interference or royal dissatisfaction emerge, sustained demonstrations are likely. For travelers, this translates into episodic road closures in major cities, increased security checkpoints, and potential delays at major transport hubs. This dynamic illustrates how travel can still be adversely impacted by an election well after voting has ceased.

Nepal’s March 2026 elections present a different risk profile, rooted less in elite power competition and more in unresolved structural grievances following the September 2025 uprising. That uprising, triggered by an abrupt social‑media ban, ignited youth‑led protests over entrenched corruption, nepotism, and a stagnant economy. The protests escalated rapidly, leading to curfews, a heavy-handed police response, and the arson of government buildings, culminating in the resignation of the prime minister and the establishment of an interim government.

Although elections are set for March 2026, the underlying grievances remain unresolved. Nepal is in a post-crisis recovery phase, not a return to stability. If establishment political parties take control of the Nepali government without credible reform commitments, demonstrations could re‑ignite with a familiar progression from peaceful rallies to confrontations. From a travel perspective, Nepal’s political fragility heightens the operational impact of renewed unrest. Travelers should be mindful that even localized protests can quickly affect overland travel, airport access, and complicate real‑time coordination of flight changes and ground transport.

Across both countries, travelers can expect elevated risks the weeks before and after the elections, rather than election day alone.  While voting may only last a single day, the operational impacts of elections can linger.

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

Digital Blackouts and Internet Repression Across Africa
Internet connectivity in Africa has expanded steadily over the past decade: however, the past year highlights how access remains susceptible to both political decisions and accidental disruptions. Stable access to electricity and reliable internet connectivity are essential to sustaining a secure, equitable, and thriving digital landscape. Several countries continue to record politically motivated blackouts, a tactic increasingly used during protests, elections, or periods of instability, while others experienced service losses from unintentional causes, such as infrastructure failures and severe weather.

Access Now’s #KeepItOn coalition documented a historically high number of shutdowns in the region, exceeding the more than 20 disruptions across 15 African countries in 2024. These measures, ranging from nationwide cuts to platform-specific blocks, can reshape the information environment by disrupting the flow of news, public discourse, and civic engagement, even when imposed for public-order or safety reasons. Sudan experienced repeated restrictions amid civil conflict. Ethiopia has maintained a prolonged pattern of regional blocks since 2016. Tanzania incurred economic costs tied to an extended election‑period outage, and Guinea faced multi‑day interruptions associated with protests and elections. Uganda, Senegal, Mauritania, Algeria, and South Sudan also appeared frequently in reporting, reflecting the varied political contexts influencing connectivity.

Alongside deliberate measures, accidental shutdowns stemming from infrastructure faults, conflict, environmental events, or maintenance windows affect millions of users and businesses. Regional observatories reported multi‑country slowdowns and traffic drops when key infrastructure routes were disrupted. These occurrences demonstrate that service reliability is not solely determined by governance choices but also on providers’ operational resilience and contingency planning. Where outages resulted from structural damage, countries with more diversified paths and robust domestic networks often experienced shorter or less severe disruptions.

Platform governance by large technology companies has also affected connectivity conditions. Regional monitors documented cases in which specific social media services were restricted in certain markets in 2025, as well as temporary messaging app limitations introduced during academic examination periods. These decisions, whether initiated by governments or implemented by providers in response to local orders, can reduce harmful content and address immediate risks, but may also limit legitimate civic expression and commercial activity if not carefully regulated.

Satellite services are often promoted as a way to stay connected when other networks fail. While satellite connectivity can help reach remote areas or provide a backup during emergencies, its availability is heavily dependent on regulatory approval, local permissions, affordability, and reliable power access. Some governments also limit or temporarily block satellite services during politically sensitive periods or security crises, meaning travelers and aid workers cannot rely on them as a universal solution. In other places, these systems can work alongside mobile networks to keep basic communication going, but their usefulness still varies widely from one country or community to another. These connectivity dynamics matter because the internet underpins education, economic participation, emergency response, and civic life. The region’s usage gap, people living within mobile broadband coverage but not using it, remains substantial at around 60%, driven by affordability, digital skills, and safety concerns. Although 4G adoption continues to grow and 5G is expanding gradually, meaningful connectivity depends on reducing structural barriers, not just expanding coverage.

Governments and regulators across Africa have explored measures to balance public safety and access, including judicial oversight, transparency around orders, and commitments to minimize collateral economic harm. In parallel, international programs and private investments continue to focus on local infrastructure, resiliency, and affordability. Connectivity disruptions, whether deliberate or accidental, increasingly coincide with instability, reducing visibility, slowing response, and amplifying risk for travelers and organizations operating in-country.

EUROPE AND THE COMMONWEALTH OF INDEPENDENT STATES (ECIS)

Security at the 2026 Milan-Cortina Winter Games
With more than two million spectators across dozens of venues spanning northern Italy’s cities and alpine regions, the Milan-Cortina 2026 Winter Games tested Europe’s ability to secure a geographically dispersed, weather-exposed mega-event. Unlike previous Winter Games, which were concentrated in a single city, this edition spans multiple venues over hundreds of kilometers. This geographic dispersion creates unique security challenges, including maintaining consistent protection across remote mountain sites, urban hubs, and transportation corridors. Large-scale events pose risks through density, movement, and visibility risks amplified by rugged terrain and adverse weather conditions.

The threat landscape is multifaceted. Crime risks, including theft and fraud, are elevated in crowded urban areas and transit hubs. Risks for protests were elevated near venues, driven by political and environmental activism. Terrorism was also a top concern, with authorities preparing for potential attacks targeting high-profile ceremonies or transport infrastructure. The Paris 2024 Summer Games faced more than 140 cyberattacks, and similar activity was expected at the Milan-Cortina Winter Games. Vulnerabilities included ticketing systems, broadcast feeds, and scoring networks, which could be disrupted by ransomware or denial-of-service attacks. United States (U.S.) Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) supported federal security coordination for the U.S. delegation, contributing investigative and threat‑monitoring expertise through interagency channels. ICE’s involvement may attract scrutiny from activists and segments of the public due to its controversial profile in recent U.S. domestic enforcement debates; however, any resulting protests are expected to remain limited and localized.

Italy responded with a robust, multi-domain security strategy backed by €1.7 billion in preparation funding. Physical security included layered checkpoints, mobile patrols, and airborne surveillance to monitor remote alpine routes. Advanced technologies such as AI-powered video analytics enhanced situational awareness, enabling real-time detection of suspicious behavior across venues and transport hubs. Cyber defense is reinforced through partnerships with Italy’s National Cybersecurity Agency, ensuring rapid response to digital threats and integration with physical security systems. These measures aimed to prevent scenarios in which a cyberattack could disable surveillance cameras or access controls, facilitating a physical breach of security.

A cornerstone of this effort was the International Security Briefing, which convened Italy’s law enforcement, military, and emergency agencies alongside global partners. Andrea Francisi, Chief Games Operations Officer, emphasized Italy’s readiness: “Thanks to the excellence of its law enforcement bodies and the strength of its inter-institutional cooperation, Italy is prepared to rise to this challenge with professionalism and vision.” This collaborative framework ensures unified protocols for venue security, crowd management, and emergency response across dispersed sites.

Environmental and logistical factors compounded these risks. Unpredictable alpine weather, blizzards, avalanches, and extreme cold can disrupt events, sever access roads, and delay emergency services. Rugged terrain complicates patrols and lengthens response times, making early detection critical. Crowd management was also a concern as spectators moved between indoor arenas, outdoor slopes, and transit hubs under variable conditions.

Ultimately, the Milan-Cortina Winter Games will serve as a benchmark for integrated security, combining physical, cyber, and intelligence-led measures across a dispersed, weather-exposed environment. Preparedness and staying informed was crucial for travelers to enjoy the Games safely, especially given the scale of this year’s security efforts.

About On Call International:
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