AMERICAS
Puerto Rico’s Election and Referendum
As the world digests the results of the United States (U.S.) elections and the global consequences of Donald Trump’s electoral victory, there was another American election taking place in Puerto Rico. Though not as high-profile as the U.S. general election, its results may prove just as consequential to local constituents and could be indicative of major electoral themes that will impact democracies around the world.
Despite residents of Puerto Rico being citizens of the U.S., due to Puerto Rico not being a state, its citizens are ineligible to vote for the U.S. president. However, under the domestic framework, residents can vote for local government officials.
This election is centered around the race for the governorship of the island, the top executive position. Traditionally, Puerto Rico has had two major political parties, the New Progressive Party (PNP), which advocates for statehood for Puerto Rico within the U.S., and the Popular Democratic Party (PPD), which seeks Puerto Rico’s status as a self-governing territory within the U.S., the status quo. Historically, the PPD has been the dominant party, but in this election cycle, the Puerto Rican Independence Party (PIP), typically a small third party obtaining 1-2 percentage points of the votes in past elections, has morphed into the second-largest political party.
A growing number of voters have abandoned the traditionally successful PPD, as a myriad of challenges across the territory have occurred. Persistent corruption, major housing affordability issues, significant failures in the power grid, poor responses to disasters like hurricanes, and general dissatisfaction with the decrease in quality of life have shifted the population to more radical approaches and solutions offered by the PNP and PIP. Supporting a pro-statehood party as a means for Puerto Rico to integrate fully within the U.S. political system has also been accompanied by major support for a solution that seeks full independence from the U.S., illustrating the stark contrast between those who want closer integration with the U.S. and those who desire complete independence.
In addition to the gubernatorial race, Puerto Rico also held a nonbinding referendum concerning the political status of the island. Voters were able to choose statehood, independence, or continued free association, although regardless of the referendum’s outcome, a change in Puerto Rico’s status would require an act of Congress. Statehood obtained a majority of the vote at 57%, but for the first time, voters chose to seek independence as the second most popular option with 37% of the vote. This is a seismic shift compared to the last time independence was offered in a referendum in 2017, at which time the independence vote was able to obtain less than 2% of the vote.
The election and referendum results indicate that the population is polarizing, with moderate voters shifting to take more extreme political stances, challenging the status quo. With 15 elections across Latin America in 2025, Puerto Rico may set the precedent for a major shift in political standards across the region, as old political parties are being replaced by new parties that advocate for more extreme political routes to implement political change.
MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA (MENA)
Türkiye and the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK)
In October 2024, the PKK claimed responsibility for a bombing at TUSAS, a Turkish defense company near the capital, Ankara. The PKK stated that the attack was in retaliation for Turkish actions they allege are oppressive toward ethnic Kurds. The incident came amid a potential shift in the approach to handling the PKK; there were suggestions that Abdullah Ocalan, the imprisoned PKK leader, could address parliament if the PKK agreed to disarm. Despite this potential opening, the PKK denied any connection between this political development and the attack, asserting that the bombing was planned independently as a response to the state’s persistent and intense oppressive practices in Kurdish-dominant regions.
The PKK, founded in 1978 with Marxist-Leninist ideals, initially pursued an independent Kurdish state. However, since 1984, the PKK has been involved in an armed conflict with various regional governments, including the Turkish state, gradually shifting its goal from full independence to gaining autonomy and cultural rights for ethnic Kurds within Türkiye. For several years, the PKK has been internationally recognized as a terrorist organization by a plethora of nations, including but not limited to Türkiye, the United States (U.S.), and the European Union (EU). Attacks claimed by the PKK in conjunction with ongoing military operations against the group have caused an estimated 40,000 lives.
It has long been established that the group’s primary operating base is in the Kandil Mountains in northern Iraq, from which it reportedly launches almost all its operations. In response, Türkiye has persistently targeted PKK positions in both Iraq and Syria via airstrikes, aiming to disrupt its operations and curtail its influence.
In Türkiye, efforts to address Kurdish rights have been mixed. The pro-Kurdish Democratic Equality and Peace (DEM) Party has emerged as a major political representative for Kurdish interests, favoring peaceful negotiation. However, the PKK’s reliance on armed tactics has led to widespread criminalization of Kurdish political activities under Türkiye’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP). Many Kurdish political leaders, including DEM Party members, have faced arrests on terrorism-related charges, with the government often associating DEM Party activities with PKK operations despite DEM’s formal distance from the PKK.
Attempts to establish sustained periods of peace remain difficult, as both the domestic public and political landscape display significant opposition and skepticism. Türkiye’s strained economy, combined with a heightened regional security environment due to ongoing conflicts and legacy sectarian divides, complicates the issue further. The recent attack on TUSAS has amplified doubts about reconciliation, with Turkish officials arguing that the timing of the bombing intended to disrupt potential peace efforts. Some suggest that economic and geopolitical factors are motivating Türkiye to seek stability with the Kurdish movement, particularly as tensions increase along Türkiye’s borders.
Despite recent peace signals, Ocalan’s ability to influence the PKK is uncertain. Experts debate whether Türkiye’s gestures represent a genuine move toward peace or a strategic effort to control internal factions, particularly amid a volatile regional environment. Ocalan has expressed a willingness to steer the PKK towards a political process, but after more than 25 years in isolation, his sway over the PKK may be limited, especially as Turkish airstrikes against the PKK continue. The conflict’s complexity underscores the challenges both sides face in moving from a militarized struggle to a sustainable political solution.
ASIA-PACIFIC (APAC)
The Increase in Lone-Wolf Style Stabbings in China
On October 28, a stabbing incident occurred in the Haidan district of Beijing. The attack resulted in five people being inflicted with serious injuries, including three children. The attack occurred at the Zhongguancun No. 3 Elementary School, which is located near several of the top universities in China. With the district housing such prestigious local universities, heightened security measures and increased surveillance have been implemented to protect the students and faculty. Local authorities have stated that the assailant acted alone and that the attack appears to have been an isolated incident. Furthermore, Chinese authorities have stated that there is no broad threat to public safety. However, the statement contradicts the sudden wave of high-profile stabbing attacks that have occurred in China throughout 2024. Notably, many of these incidents have resulted in foreign nationals being injured or killed.
In 2024, major stabbing attacks have occurred in the cities of Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen (Guangdong province), Suzhou (Jiangsu province), and in Jilin City (Jilin province). In addition to the attack in Beijing on October 28, a second recent stabbing incident also took place in Shanghai. On October 1, three people were killed and another 15 were injured at a shopping center in the highly populated Songjiang district in Shanghai. A 37-year-old male was arrested and allegedly carried out the attack over personal grievances. What is noteworthy is that these incidents appear to have occurred at random and as such are often difficult to anticipate. Moreover, travelers should note that many of these attacks have specifically targeted foreign nationals. Attacks on foreign nationals in China have caused some employers to act on their duty of care responsibilities and facilitate the movement of foreign national employees out of China.
In September 2024, a 10-year-old Japanese student was stabbed near his school. The student attended the Shenzhen Japanese School, which caters specifically to Japanese students in Shenzhen. The Japanese government has expressed the fear that rising Chinese nationalism, which often espouses anti-Japanese sentiment, has created a threat to Japanese nationals traveling in China. Another similar incident in June 2024 occurred in the city of Suzhou (Jiangsu province) when a man attacked a Japanese woman and her child with a knife on a bus. These two incidents have strained diplomatic relations between Japan and China and many Japanese companies have offered to help Japanese citizens relocate out of China. It is also worth noting that United States (U.S.) citizens have been impacted as well. In June 2024, four academics from the U.S. were stabbed in Jilin City while visiting a local park. According to local authorities, the assailant allegedly ran into one of the Americans and proceeded to stab them. This attack occurred at random and was not part of a broader effort to target U.S. citizens.
Surrounding the attack in September, local authorities released a statement that the assailant had been motivated by a previous conflict between China and Japan. Security services in China exercise extreme levels of surveillance, including across social media, however, lone-wolf-style attacks such as this remain difficult to predict. Considering the sheer scale of China and the size of its population, similar incidents are highly likely to occur. However, constituents are reminded that most travel to China occurs uneventfully, yet there remains a persistent threat of indiscriminate violence, particularly involving foreign nationals.
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
Ongoing Unrest in Mozambique Following Election Results
On October 9, Mozambique held its presidential election, which was widely expected to be won by the ruling Front for the Liberation of Mozambique (FRELIMO) party. Additionally, voting for provincial governors and parliament members also took place. Daniel Chapo, FRELIMO’s candidate, was later declared the winner to succeed outgoing President Filipe Nyusi and allow FRELIMO to maintain over 49 years of single-party rule. Chapo has previously served as the governor of the Inhambane province, one of the country’s primary tourist destinations. The election was under close examination by international and regional election observers as FRELIMO has been accused of tampering with elections to maintain its hold on power.
On October 19, opposition Podemos party officials confirmed that a party lawyer and spokesman had been killed during a late-night attack on October 18 in the capital, Maputo. Reportedly, the individuals were killed by gunmen after an ambush on their vehicle in the Bairro Da Coop neighborhood of Maputo. This attack occurred after Podemos representatives rejected the provisional results announced for the presidential election and planned to launch protests, including a general strike beginning on October 21. Local reports indicated that the strike was widely observed, as several businesses in Maputo closed for the day. Police clashed with opposition protesters in Maputo on October 21, using teargas and firing live ammunition. The violent clashes were anticipated with the opposition members’ deaths being regarded as political assassinations, further exacerbating the political situation.
On October 22, representatives for the European Union (EU) election observer mission reported multiple irregularities in general elections held on October 9. Other observers from the United States (U.S.) also further noted reports of discrepancy issues, including inflated voter rolls, voter intimidation, and vote buying. Representatives stated that a full, transparent investigation into the irregularities reported should be held.
Thousands of protesters have continued to hold regular anti-government protests since the final election results on October 24 declared Daniel Chapo president-elect. On November 1, internet access began to be regularly cut off and access to media websites was restricted to suppress protests. As of November 6, 20 people have been reported killed during protests, and several hundred participants have either been arrested or injured. With protests planned to continue indefinitely, Defense Minister Cristóvão Chume is now threatening to deploy troops alongside police forces, or replace them on the street entirely, if protests do not stop. Chume also accused protesters of attempting to overthrow the government.
Political tensions are not uncommon in Mozambique since the country transitioned to a democratic system in 1994. Allegations against FRELIMO of engaging in tactics to manipulate election results are quite common. In the 2023 local elections, FRELIMO was accused of ballot-stuffing and doctoring results to claim victory in 64 municipalities of a possible 65. Security forces in the country are known to use lethal force on protesters during previous protests, which elevates this risk. Protests following local elections in 2023 led to security forces opening fire on protesters.
EUROPE AND THE COMMONWEALTH OF INDEPENDENT STATES (ECIS)
Devastating Flooding in Valencia Province Prompts Unrest
In the last week of October 2024, major flooding devastated the province of Valencia, Spain with roughly over a year’s worth of rainfall falling in only eight hours. At the time of issuing this report, over 215 people have been killed, many more remain missing, and the number of missing persons and casualties is expected to increase. The water levels filled streets at an alarming speed and caused a fast-moving mudslide inflicting massive destruction. The areas most affected were the Valencia suburbs of La Torre, and nearby areas such as Chiva, Picanya, and Utiel. The damage to homes and infrastructure remains extensive and will require a sustained long-term relief effort. The high levels of precipitation were driven by the Depresion Aislada en Niveles Altos (DANA). The DANA weather phenomenon occurs when a cold air mass collides with the warm, specifically humid Mediterranean air, which causes an intense storm.
The Spanish government deployed approximately 7,500 military personnel to assist in relief efforts, which marks the largest Spanish peacetime military operation. Residents deemed the government’s response inadequate, which has prompted civil unrest and the threat of further instability.
Many in the region began expressing their grievances towards the government for not issuing timely flood alerts. The initial anger regarding delayed flood alerts gained momentum during official visits from top political figures, as residents of Valencia condemned the government for allegedly hindering volunteer efforts. The Spanish King Felipe VI, Queen Letizia, and Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez visited Valencia following the flooding and were met with residents expressing anger over perceived government negligence and a delayed emergency response. The situation escalated when residents began throwing mud and debris at the King, Queen, and Prime Minister. Bystanders yelled ‘Killers’ and ‘Shame on you’ towards the royals and Prime Minister while security officials attempted to maintain order and hinder additional projectiles.
Additional protests occurred in the capital Madrid, reflecting the frustration with the government’s handling of the severe flooding in Valencia. Residents in the Spanish capital Madrid joined with politicians from various opposition parties to demand government accountability and many accused officials of prioritizing economic interests over public safety, claiming that government officials allowed people in the region to continue to work despite the weather worsening at the beginning of the intense rainfall.
Anti-government protests have occurred worldwide in periods following natural disasters, with citizens often blaming the government for inadequate preparation, slow responses, or initially poor infrastructure. The devastating earthquake and tsunami in March 2011 in Japan, followed by the Fukushima nuclear disaster, prompted anti-government demonstrations nationwide. Protesters criticized the government, specifically the Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO). Following the Sulawesi earthquake and tsunami in September 2018 in Indonesia, protests occurred against the government’s response by criticizing delays in aid and emergency supplies. Demonstrations in Indonesia also included criticism of the country’s disaster resilience and the government’s preparations for such environmental threats.
In the aftermath of a natural disaster, civil unrest can pose a serious risk to travelers, especially when communities feel that their needs have not been adequately addressed by their government. This unrest can further strain recovery efforts and create lasting political tension. As Valencia continues to rehabilitate, there is the risk of further unrest in the Valencia province and nationwide.
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