Monthly Risk Spotlight: February 2025

AMERICAS 

Potential Economic and Political Challenges
In 2024, Latin America faced significant economic and political challenges, reflected in a growth rate of 1.9%, the lowest among global regions. Political instability was a major concern with several countries in the region holding elections with varying degrees of success. Typically stable countries like Ecuador and Costa Rica experienced major increases in insecurity and political tensions, while Mexico undertook its largest and most violent election to date, electing its first female and Jewish president. There are several key identifiers that could shape the future of the region. Potential economic recovery, increased foreign investment, and an evolving political landscape can hold both opportunities and challenges for the year, impacting travel risk.

The economic conditions for 2025 are so far looking more favorable than last year’s, but Latin America is still forecast to be the slowest growing region in the world. However, considerable progress in controlling inflation in the region can result in decreased crime rates and lower risks of civil unrest, as the economic purchasing power of citizens can remain stable.

2024 was one of the most active years for elections in the Americas and this year is scheduled to be just as active. Elections often lead to changes in the political landscape, and this can have major effects on both domestic and foreign policies across the region. As an example, Mexico’s newly elected president Claudia Sheinbaum has vowed to reduce Mexico’s reliance on fossil fuels and invest in green energy, which may cause major shifts in investments across the country.

Shifts in trade agreements and international relations can also be expected as the region braces for major policy changes due to the United States (U.S.). President Donald Trump’s threat to impose tariffs on Mexico and Canada. Additionally, threats to Panama and Greenland have stirred concern in the region. Furthermore, a brief political crisis arose due to the Trump administration’s migration policies and Colombia’s President Petro’s refusal to accept migrant planes. This led to a cancelation of visa processing for Colombians at the U.S. embassy. Travelers should monitor potential trip cancelations due to political events across the region. In addition to relatively minor political spats, nationalistic behaviors from Venezuela’s President Maduro, who claims large swaths of land that belong to its neighbor, Guyana, places inter-American conflict as a new potential risk. This is particularly concerning for travelers in a region that has typically not witnessed neighboring countries go to war with each other.

Another significant challenge for risk management in the region is climate change and its economic impact. Climate shocks have already had a major effect at the end of last year and into early 2025. For instance, Dengue Fever has become a major health issue across the continent, with cases of Dengue Fever expected to reach record highs. Additionally, the 2025 hurricane season is expected to be as active and intense as the 2024 season. Weather events, along with health and safety concerns, pose some additional risks for travelers to the region to consider.

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA (MENA)

Lebanon’s New President and the Ceasefire Extension
On January 9, 2025, Lebanese Army commander Joseph Aoun was elected as president of Lebanon, filling a vacancy of more than two years. Aoun’s success as a commander in the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF), particularly his counterterrorism trainings targeting the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), allowed him to forge close connections with various regional and international actors. Specifically, the United States (U.S.), Saudi Arabia, and Qatar were particularly helpful in garnering support around Aoun for the presidency, in conjunction with Hezbollah’s weakened condition from its war with Israel that began October 2024. Furthermore, the collapse of the Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria and the weakening of Iran, both key allies of Hezbollah, has put the group in a back-peddling position which aided in Aoun’s ascension to power.

President Aoun has claimed that his focus will center around a new era of sovereignty for Lebanon and promises to disarm Hezbollah by ensuring the government has the exclusive right to carry arms, a policy consistent with the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire agreement established in November 2024. Under the terms of the ceasefire, Hezbollah and Israel had 60 days to withdraw their presence from the southern Lebanon region. Hezbollah was to move north of the Litani River while the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) were to withdraw from the south, allowing the LAF to deploy. However, in late January 2025, Israel stated that the Lebanese army had not yet fully deployed to prevent Hezbollah from reestablishing in the south. As a result, Israel kept its troops in Lebanon beyond the 60-day deadline.

The ceasefire was subsequently extended to February 18, after the IDF killed at least 22 Lebanese citizens and wounded 124 others. These individuals were attempting to return to areas still under Israeli military occupation in south Lebanon. Failing to fully deploy LAF troops to destroy Hezbollah weapons storage facilities, a key requirement in the ceasefire deal, strains the truce, delays Lebanese citizens return, and hurts Aoun’s goal of having complete arms control. Hezbollah has refrained from responding forcefully to Israel’s violations of the agreement and instead has focused its resources and efforts on how to curtail the erosion of its position. Reportedly, Hezbollah has been sending Lebanese civilians toward the IDF’s positions to serve as human collateral in attempt to undermine the new Lebanese government. Protests against continued occupation erupted at the border of Lebanon and Israel, during which Israeli troops killed two people and wounded 17. Previously, 24 people died and more than 130 others were wounded when Israeli soldiers opened fire on protesters who had breached roadblocks set up along the border. Hezbollah will likely take any opportunity to challenge Lebanon’s new president and government, claiming that they are failing to defend the country and its sovereignty.

Hezbollah’s diminished state opens the door for the international community to provide foreign aid and backing to Lebanon’s new leaders, allowing for a reform agenda that was not previously there. With this shift in power, the election of a head of state is a step in a positive direction, as the country has faced years of political corruption and economic crisis. The immediate, near-term challenge for President Aoun and international partners will be maintaining the ceasefire after February 18. Should the ceasefire fail and there be a resurgence in Hezbollah’s strength, the success of political stability in Lebanon’s new government will likely be hindered.

ASIA-PACIFIC (APAC)

Crowd Crush Incident on the Rise in India
In January 2025, India experienced two significant crowd crush incidents during two religious festivals. The first incident occurred on January 8, at the Lord Venkateswara Swami Temple in Tirupati (Andhra Pradesh state). This event was followed by a separate incident on January 29 at the Maha Kumbh festival in Prayagraj (Uttar Pradesh state). Both crowd crush incidents underscore the challenges authorities in India face in implementing effective crowd control measures at major gatherings.

On January 8, a stampede at the Lord Venkateswara Swami Temple in Tirupati resulted in the deaths of six people and caused dozens of injuries. Investigators found that the stampede occurred when local security forces opened the gates to the temple and a large crowd quickly rushed onto the temple’s grounds. The Lord Venkateswara Swami Temple was hosting a religious gathering, for which thousands of people had gathered in Tirupati. This incident highlighted the extreme pressures exerted on infrastructure in Tirupati and the ineffectiveness of the crowd management systems preemptively put in place before the festival.

An additional incident occurred on January 29, where more than 30 people were killed during a stampede for the Maha Kumbh festival in Prayagraj. The Maha Kumbh festival marks a highly sacred day for ritual bathing in the Ganges, Yamuna, and Saraswati rivers. The festival attracted around 90 million people to Prayagraj, which overwhelmed local security forces and served to undermine crowd control measures. The stampede occurred when barriers partitioning off the riverbanks collapsed and copious amounts of people rushed into the river. Despite 50,000 security personals being deployed to the area, emergency response efforts were largely unsuccessful.

Several factors contributed to both crowd crush incidents. The first contributing factor was overwhelming attendance. Both Maha Kumbh and the festival in Tirupati attracted significant crowds, with Maha Kumbh attracting 100 million people.  These crowd sizes quickly surpassed the capabilities of local facilities and crowd management infrastructure, leading to bottlenecks in roadways and on festival grounds. Second, the authorities in both Prayagraj and Tirupati implemented ineffective crowd control strategies that caused an unnecessary concentration of crowds, creating conditions for stampedes. For the Maha Kumbh festival, many bridges crossing the Ganges, Yamuna, and Saraswati rivers were closed, forcing crowds to congregate on just a few bridges. At the Lord Venkateswara Swami Temple in Tirupati, the gates to enter the temple were kept closed for a prolonged period, which allowed a significant crowd to form outside of the temple. Reportedly, when the gates were opened, there were only 4 police officers inside the temple to control the crowd. The ineffective crowd management techniques implemented in both Prayagraj and Tirupati likely contributed to the conditions that led to both of the stampedes.

Incidents of stampedes occurring at major events in the country are not isolated. In July 2024, a stampede at a religious gathering in the Hathras district (Uttar Pradesh) resulted in the deaths of 121 people. The two crowd crush incidents in January 2025, along with the stampede in July 2024, highlight the challenges Indian authorities face in implementing crowd control at large gatherings. However, due to the significant number of attendees at these gatherings, it is likely the risk of stampedes and crowd crush incidents will continue to pose a risk to those in attendance.

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

Conflict Continues in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC)
The DRC has been in an ongoing armed conflict with the March 23 Movement (M23) rebel group since M23 renewed its offensive operations in 2022. The ongoing conflict has also expanded into a diplomatic dispute as the Congolese government has repeatedly accused the government of Rwanda of arming and sheltering M23. The Rwandan government has repeatedly denied these accusations, despite United Nations (UN) reports indicating that Rwandan troops have been observed in eastern DRC. Since M23 resumed its conflict, over seven million residents throughout provinces in eastern DRC have been displaced, creating a major humanitarian crisis in the country.

Local officials reported that March 23 Movement (M23) rebels took control of Masisi (North Kivu province) in early January, which is located 50 miles (80 km) from the provincial capital of Goma.  M23 rebels also took control of the village of Katale, which is west of Masisi. The capture was strategic, as Masisi is the second largest territory in North Kivu. Reports indicate that the Congolese Armed Forces (FARDC) drove M23 forces from South Kivu province a few days later and recaptured several towns and villages. Meanwhile, fighting intensified in eastern North Kivu province.

Nearly two weeks later, M23 forces seized control of Minova (North Kivu), a town used as a main supply route for reaching Goma. Over 100,000 residents fled from Goma when M23 forces began advancing on the city. The conflict escalated further as Maj. Gen Peter Cirimwami, governor of North Kivu, was killed during combat with M23 rebels. On January 25, the Congolese government responded to his death by formally severing all diplomatic ties with Rwanda.

One day later, representatives for M23 rebels announced the capture of Goma and declared airspace over Goma closed indefinitely. The Congolese government declared Goma’s occupation to be a declaration of war from M23 and Rwanda. This announcement came as the 48-hour deadline for Congolese troops in Goma to surrender expired. Intense fighting for control over the city continued with 773 confirmed fatalities. On February 3, M23 and the Congo River Alliance declared a unilateral ceasefire in North Kivu, allowing for humanitarian aid to be delivered. Reports indicated M23 forces were continuing to seize towns in South Kivu province on approach to the capital of Bukavu.

The ongoing conflict has not only caused significant humanitarian crises but has also escalated into a complex diplomatic dispute involving accusations against the Rwandan government. The strategic captures by M23, including key territories and supply routes, have intensified the conflict, leading to severe displacement and loss of life. The Congolese government’s response, including severing diplomatic ties with Rwanda, highlights the gravity of the situation. Despite a declared ceasefire, the conflict shows very few signs of improvement with continued fighting and territorial advances by M23. The deteriorating security situation has also sparked violent protests in the capital, Kinshasa, indicating widespread public discontent and the potential for further instability. As the conflict persists, the international community’s response and the ability to manage humanitarian aid and evacuations will be crucial in mitigating the crisis’ impact.

EUROPE AND THE COMMONWEALTH OF INDEPENDENT STATES (ECIS) 

Rising Far-Right Groups Pose Civil Unrest and Travel Restriction Risks
The far-right is on the march throughout Europe, with formerly marginalized parties now securing major roles in government and advancing controversial policies that have the potential to reshape European integration, security, and stability. In countries like Italy, Slovakia, Hungary, the Netherlands, Croatia, Georgia, and Finland, far-right and Eurosceptic parties control, or are major coalition partners in, government. In Austria, the far-right emerged victorious in the September 2024 elections and are likely to win another round of elections if coalition talks collapse. Meanwhile, far-right parties are also polling at record highs in Germany, Romania, Norway, the Czech Republic, France, and the United Kingdom (U.K.), many of which have elections scheduled in 2025. While separated by borders, the far-right in all these countries have expressed a disdain toward European integration, freedom of movement, and immigrants, resulting in rising civil unrest risk across the region.

A core pillar of far-right party platforms throughout Europe is tightening border controls to restrict immigration and deporting millions of migrants already living on the continent. As recently as November 2024, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) held a meeting discussing plans to deport millions of immigrants, including those who possessed German citizenship. In France, Hungary, and the Netherlands, far-right nationalists have vocally opposed Muslim, African, and Ukrainian immigrants and refugees. The increasing popularity of these parties highlights an emerging threat for not only immigrant populations, but travelers who identify as Muslim or a minority group.

As the far-right becomes more popular and its anti-immigrant rhetoric enters mainstream politics, the risk of verbal harassment, physical attacks against minority communities, and civil unrest increases. This risk was exemplified in the U.K. in August 2024 when misinformation about the ethnicity of the perpetrator of a stabbing attack caused a week of far-right riots that resulted in over 100 injuries, the burning of buildings, and the storming of hotels housing asylum seekers. Large anti-far-right demonstrations have also increased across the continent. On February 2, hundreds of thousands of people across the U.K. protested center-right efforts to partner with the far-right on immigration, resulting in significant transportation disruptions. The potential for clashes with the police or counter protesters also presents significant risks for travelers.

The far-right has sought to fundamentally undermine the current European order and integration that has allowed for unprecedented ease of travel. Far-right parties have increasingly expressed Eurosceptic ideals and advocated for their countries leaving the European Union (EU). Looking to the U.K.’s 2020 exit from the EU, France’s Marine Le Pen has threatened to withdraw France from the EU if she or her National Rally party take power. Meanwhile, Germany, France, Austria, and Hungary have implemented increasingly frequent border checks due to concerns of immigrant flows, despite being part of the Schengen Zone that is supposed to allow free movement across borders. As the far-right increases its presence in European governments, stricter travel restrictions are likely to be put in place, thus rolling back European integration and freedom of movement across the continent.

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