Monthly Risk Spotlight: August 2025

AMERICAS

Navigating Cartel-Controlled Areas: Risks and Precautions
Organized crime has long shaped Mexico’s security landscape. Positioned between the world’s largest drug market, the United States, and the major drug-producing regions of South America, Mexico has become a strategic hub for producing, transporting, and distributing illicit substances such as fentanyl, heroin, and cocaine. Many cartels began as smuggling operations but have evolved into multinational criminal enterprises with extensive global supply chains and significant influence. They have infiltrated Mexican society, entangling themselves with local law enforcement, politics, and local economies. In some areas, cartels function as de facto rulers—enforcing laws, filling governmental roles, and providing services typically offered by the state.

Cartels thrive in areas where the state is weak or absent, particularly in rural and underserved regions plagued by underfunding, corruption, and a lack of institutional presence. In these areas, cartels build loyalty by offering healthcare, infrastructure improvements, and financial support, fostering loyalty and dependency. They maintain control through a mix of coercion and patronage, bribing or threatening local officials, business owners, and residents. In Michoacán, for example, the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) sponsored holiday events and gift raffles for children. Banners thanking CJNG’s leader were publicly displayed, illustrating how cartels embed themselves in local traditions to gain social legitimacy. Recruitment is another tool of control, with vulnerable individuals, especially young men, lured by promises of high-paying jobs. In Jalisco, applicants were abducted and trained in weapons used by local police who had been co-opted by the cartel. This system minimizes dissent, influences local elections, installs sympathetic candidates, and secures territorial dominance.

While cartel violence is often concentrated in rural or contested regions, its effects extend to urban centers. Risks in cartel-controlled areas include roadblocks, extortion, and unpredictable violence. Even in tourist destinations like Cancun or Tulum, cartels may control local businesses—including nightclubs and dining establishments—exposing visitors to criminal risks. Informants embedded in local networks may track visitors who stand out and report their activities to the cartel. Journalists reporting on corruption or human rights issues in cartel-controlled regions of rural Mexico may be subject to surveillance.

Travelers engaged in work, research, foreign aid, or business may face ethical and legal dilemmas when operating in regions controlled by cartels. Accepting cartel-sponsored hospitality or protection, even if it’s the only viable way to visit and work in a particular area, can carry serious legal implications. Such interactions may inadvertently place visitors on the radar of criminal organizations or police databases, compromising their safety and potentially entangling them in illicit networks.

In regions where cartels operate as de facto governments, the lines between criminal enterprises and local authorities blur, creating risks and uncertainty. For international travelers, understanding these dynamics is a matter of safety. Whether driving rural roads, conducting research, or engaging in humanitarian work, vigilance, situational awareness and local knowledge are crucial. Reducing cartel control will require long-term investment in strengthening local institutions, improved public services, and reestablishing state authority—allowing legitimate governance to take root where criminal networks once thrived.

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA (MENA)

Extreme Heat and Travel Risk in the Middle East: Infrastructure, Health, and Tourism Impact
Extreme temperatures are increasing public health risks, straining infrastructure, and challenging long-term habitability in the Middle East. Rising heat shortens tourist seasons and burdens public health systems.

As one of the world’s most climate-vulnerable regions, the Middle East, characterized by arid terrain, rapid urbanization, and scarce water resources—is warming significantly faster than the global average, placing urban populations at increasing risk. Temperatures are rising by 3.6–5.4°F (2–3°C), rainfall is declining, and annual water evaporation is reaching 9.8 inches (25 cm), pushing water resources to critical levels.

Tourism infrastructure in arid countries like the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA; ‘Saudi Arabia’), Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) is highly vulnerable to water shortages, which can disrupt hospitality services and sanitation. During June and July, prolonged heat across the Levant pushed temperatures above 104°F (40°C), prompting Jordan to implement water rationing as reservoirs reached critically low levels.

The UAE recorded unprecedented May temperatures, disrupting daily life and driving peak energy demand that strained the national grid, leading to scheduled outages. Forecasts for August predicted temperatures of 0.25–0.5°C above average. Hotels, airports, and transport systems often face higher cooling costs and possible blackouts during peak heat. Travelers can protect themselves from extreme heat by seeking out urban cooling features like green spaces, shaded walkways, and reflective surfaces, which help lower temperatures and reduce the risk of heat-related illnesses.

Increasingly frequent and intense heatwaves are making summer travel less viable across the region, shifting demand toward cooler months. Cities such as Baghdad (Iraq), Kuwait City (Kuwait), and Riyadh (KSA) may experience up to four months of extreme heat annually, with parts of the Arabian Peninsula reaching temperatures as high as 122°F (50°C) in July. This shift in seasonality is already reducing summer arrivals and increasing demand for climate-resilient destinations.

Rising temperatures will continue to impact tourism across much of the Middle East. Destinations that invest in adaptive infrastructure, sustainable water management, seasonal tourism strategies, and robust cooling and emergency medical systems will be best equipped to protect visitors and sustain tourism in an increasingly extreme climate.

ASIA-PACIFIC (APAC)

Mobility as a Tool of Control: Exit Bans and Passport Cancellations in Greater China
On July 21, 2025, a senior Wells Fargo executive was barred from leaving China during a business trip due to an alleged ongoing criminal investigation, a quiet yet striking example of how Chinese authorities increasingly use mobility restrictions as tools of influence and deterrence. This followed an April case in which a U.S. federal employee was subjected to an exit ban under similarly opaque circumstances. While exit bans are not new, their growing application against foreign nationals and dual citizens has heightened concern among international businesses and government agencies.

Exit bans in China are imposed with little transparency and can stem from a wide range of triggers, including financial disputes, civil litigation, and national security concerns. Affected individuals often discover the restriction only when attempting to depart, and the duration can vary widely, from weeks to years, depending on the political and legal sensitivities involved.

China does not recognize dual nationality, meaning that those of Chinese heritage who have acquired foreign citizenship may still be regarded as Chinese nationals under domestic law. This can limit access to consular assistance and place cases under heightened scrutiny, particularly if their profession, affiliations, or political views are deemed sensitive. In the Wells Fargo case, the absence of formal charges or a clear legal process deepened concerns about the arbitrariness of enforcement. From a risk management perspective, the inability to predict or contest an exit ban makes it a potent tool of coercion, with implications not only for individuals but also for the companies that employ them. For global companies, this is more than a diplomatic concern; it introduces a tangible operational risk for executives and employees with ties to China or Chinese-administered territories.

This tightening control over individual movement is not limited to mainland China. On August 5, 2025, Hong Kong authorities announced the cancellation of passports and imposition of financial sanctions on twelve overseas-based pro-democracy activists. Citing Article 23 of the national security law, officials criminalized the provision of material or financial support to these individuals, threatening violators with up to seven years’ imprisonment. This extraterritorial application of Hong Kong law follows a pattern that began with the issuance of bounties for exiled activists but marks a new phase in asserting control beyond Hong Kong’s borders.

Together, these measures reflect a broader strategy by Chinese and Hong Kong authorities to leverage mobility as a mechanism of political influence and enforcement. Whether through informal exit bans or formal passport cancellation, both systems are opaque, largely unchallengeable, and selectively applied. The risks extend beyond activists or political opponents to include foreign executives, dual nationals, and individuals with indirect ties to sensitive sectors. For international organizations operating in the region, these cases are a stark reminder that personal liberty, legal predictability, and freedom of movement cannot be taken for granted.

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

Niger Junta Fails to Curb Rising Attacks on Foreign Nationals
A series of recent incidents in Niger highlights the persistent vulnerability of foreign nationals and the ruling military junta’s inability to reverse deteriorating security trends. Since taking power in a July coup d’état, the junta has failed to fulfill its promises of restoring stability, as extremist violence, organized crime, and kidnapping-for-ransom continue unchecked. extremist violence, organized crime, and kidnapping-for-ransom operations continuing unabated.

On July 15, 2025, armed assailants attacked a construction site for an electrical infrastructure project in the Dosso region, about 80 miles (130 km) from the capital, Niamey. Two Indian nationals were killed, and a third, Ranjit Singh, was abducted. Singh’s whereabouts remain unknown, with no group claiming responsibility or ransom demands. The Indian government has engaged Nigerien authorities in efforts to secure his release.

This attack reflects a wider pattern of targeting foreign workers. On April 25, 2025, five Indian technicians were kidnapped in Sakoira (Tillarbéri Region). On February 2nd, militants aligned with the Islamic State-Sahel Province (IS–Sahel) abducted two Chinese nationals of the China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) in Agadez (Agadez Region). Outside major urban centers, such incidents are increasingly common, highlighting the security services’ inability to project effective control in rural or border regions.

Niger faces sustained threats from jihadist groups, including IS-Sahel and Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), which operate across porous borders with Burkina Faso, Mali, and Nigeria. These groups exploit ethnic tensions, resource disputes, and weak governance to recruit and operate. The July 2023 coup, staged on the grounds that the civilian government had failed to contain such threats, has instead deepened instability. Regional sanctions and diplomatic isolation have reduced external support, while the new security partnerships have yet to produce tangible gains.

Perceptions of weakened state authority have emboldened armed actors, leading to spikes in terrorist and criminal activity. High-value targets include government-backed infrastructure, mining, oil operations, and other foreign investment projects, which offer both financial rewards and symbolic value in undermining the state’s credibility.

The implications for foreign companies and personnel are stark. Insecurity has the potential to disrupt operations, raise insurance and security costs, and deter future investment. Workers, whether on short-term assignments or long-term contracts, face elevated risks including targeted harassment, extortion attempts, and, in some cases, physical harm during attacks or abduction incidents. Without significant improvements in state security capacity, these risks are expected to remain elevated, particularly in rural and border regions where militant influence is entrenched.

It’s recommended that organizations operating in Niger should reassess their risk mitigation strategies. Measures may include enhanced journey management protocols, vetted local security escorts, real-time intelligence monitoring, and crisis response planning that accounts for abduction scenarios. Engagement with diplomatic missions, sector-specific risk briefings, and coordination with reputable security providers can further reduce exposure.

The Dosso attack demonstrates that political change alone does not guarantee improved security. For now, foreign nationals in Niger, and the companies employing them, must operate on the assumption that the threat environment will remain volatile for the foreseeable future.

EUROPE AND THE COMMONWEALTH OF INDEPENDENT STATES (ECIS)

Migration Control and Marginalization
Migration policies across the European Union (EU) are hardening, with controversial laws in Denmark and rising discrimination creating an increasingly challenging environment for foreign nationals and minority travelers. Conflicts in the Middle East and East Africa have driven a new wave of migration to Europe, fueling anti-immigration protests, increased violence, and the growing influence of right-wing political movements.

The EU has moved toward a more securitized migration framework, strengthening Frontex —the European Border and Coast Guard Agency—and tightening policies through measures such as the European Migration Pact. While aimed at curbing irregular migration, these measures are increasingly affecting legitimate travelers through increased border checks and stricter entry requirements.

Frontex’s expanded role includes greater operational support to Member States and oversight of the upcoming European Travel Information and Authorization System (ETIAS). Starting in late 2026, travelers from visa-free countries will need to pre-register personal and travel details before entering the EU. Combined with enhanced screening within the Schengen area, these changes are expected to result in more delays and closer scrutiny at borders.

Since the 2015 migration crisis, policymakers have struggled to manage the influx of third-country nationals (TCNs). Fewer than a quarter of those receiving return orders leave the EU, and Member States remain divided on enforcement. Migration impacts taxation, housing, employment, and public services, all of which are issues that are often exploited in political debates.

Denmark’s “zero” refugee policy represents the most restrictive approach. At the height of the 2015 crisis, the country seized valuables from asylum seekers and ran deterrent advertisements abroad. More recently, its “parallel societies” law allows demolition or sale of apartment blocks where half the residents are not Western born. In February 2025, the European Court of Justice ruled the law discriminatory, yet Denmark has refused to amend it. Rising tourism and housing shortages have further disadvantaged migrant communities, potentially deterring travelers who prioritize destinations with progressive immigration policies.

France, Germany, Greece, Italy, and Spain face similar migration pressures and are trending toward more conservative measures. The EU’s Fundamental Rights Agency has reported increased Islamophobia, antisemitism, and other forms of discrimination, exacerbated by geopolitical tensions. Over the past 14 months, incidents of verbal abuse and harassment have affected not only EU citizens but also tourists, business travelers, and students, particularly those perceived as being from migrant backgrounds.

Overall, the EU’s migration strategy is shifting toward restriction and heightened border security. While intended to control illegal migration, these measures risk fostering a hostile climate for lawful travelers and foreign nationals. The growing political consensus around securitization may have lasting effects on civil liberties, social cohesion, and human rights. In some regions, far-right narratives are influencing both policy and public sentiment, increasing the likelihood of scrutiny or hostility based on skin color, religion, or accent. Organizations should monitor these developments and prepare travelers accordingly, especially in locations with histories of anti-immigration unrest or discrimination.

About On Call International:
When traveling, every problem is unique–a medical crisis, a political threat, even a common accident such as a missed flight. But every solution starts with customized care that ensures travelers are safe and protected. That’s why for over 30 years, On Call International has provided fully-customized travel risk management and emergency assistance services protecting millions of travelers, their families, and their organizations. Visit www.oncallinternational.com and follow us on LinkedIn to learn more.