AMERICAS
Mexico’s New President Takes Office
Claudia Sheinbaum takes office as Mexico’s first female and Jewish president, following a strong electoral victory in June 2024. This election was described as the most violent election in the country’s history. Sheinbaum assumes control at a chaotic time in Mexico; political and cartel violence has increased, migration issues have gone unresolved, and her ties with outgoing president Andrés Manuel López (AMLO) brings doubt that she will be able to pass policies without his approval.
Sheinbaum’s inauguration ceremony on October 1 was delayed as thousands of citizens obstructed the vehicles of both AMLO and Sheinbaum in celebratory revelry. Protesters also gathered on the streets to object the judiciary reform that AMLO passed as one of his last acts as president, which is also supported by Sheinbaum.
Mexico, a country that granted women the right to vote as late as the 1950’s, has made major strides to improve the political and social status of women. Political parties in Mexico are required to have female candidates make up at least 50% of all candidates for federal, state and municipal elections. As a result, about half of the Mexican Congress is now made up of women and at least a third of state governors are women. During her inaugural speech, Sheinbaum took the opportunity to highlight her electoral victory as a victory for all Mexican women and a new stage of electoral and social equality.
Sheinbaum, an environmental scientist, has vowed to change Mexico’s approach to fossil fuel reliance and intends to focus resources on developing renewable resources to combat greenhouse gases that cause climate change. Additionally, Sheinbaum announced that Mexico’s national oil production will be capped at 1.8 million barrels per day and will not allow for non-traditional exploration for additional oil resources. In practice, the new oil policies would mean that Mexico will exhaust its exploitable oil in about 10 years. Environmental concerns in Mexico are significant, as the country experienced some severe droughts and hurricanes in 2024. Several states, along with the capital Mexico City, required water restrictions, and major hurricanes impacted Pacific and Atlantic states with severe intensity.
These proposed environmental actions from Sheinbaum shift away from the energy policies of her predecessor who invested heavily in new oil refineries and prevented the development of solar and wind farms during his term in office. While this may be seen as a sign Sheinbaum will not seek to emulate the policies of AMLO, analysts speculate it’s only one of the few issues they differ on.
Excluding her environmental policy shifts, Sheinbaum is expected to continue several of her predecessors’ policies, including expanded welfare payments for students and elderly, constitutional reforms to the judiciary, increased military investment, and increased infrastructure investments. In addition to continuing these polices, she is expected to face some of the same challenges as her predecessor, such as illegal immigration, combating transnational criminal organizations (TCOs), and navigating relations with the United States (U.S.). Any one of these issues could lead to political tensions and potentially mark the start of her term with further anti-government demonstrations.
MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA (MENA)
Looking Ahead to Algeria’s President’s Second Term
Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune was inaugurated for a second term following his victory in the September 2024 elections. The results were marred by voter indifference and skepticism surrounding the vote count. The inauguration ceremony took place at the People’s Palace in the capital, Algiers, with Tebboune’s opponents, Abdelaali Hassani Cherif and Youcef Aouchiche, also in attendance. The election results, initially questioned by Tebboune’s challengers, were confirmed after a recount by Algeria’s Constitutional Court. Tebboune received 84.3% of the vote, defeating Cherif and Aouchiche, who received 9.6% and 6.1% respectively.
The election, despite a voter turnout of 46.1%, higher than the 2019 election’s 39.9% turnout, faced criticism. Many saw it as a controlled process favoring Algeria’s elite and the military establishment, which has been accused of shaping the country’s leadership. Cherif’s campaign raised concerns regarding irregularities, including vote inflation and proxy voting, though the electoral commission maintained the vote’s transparency. Algerian youth, a significant portion of the population, were notably disengaged, expressing distrust in the political process and feelings of disconnectedness from the election’s significance.
Tebboune’s presidency, supported by the military, promised continuity in Algeria’s governing strategy. During his first term, he leveraged increased energy revenues to implement social spending programs, including unemployment benefits and subsidies. His economic plan for the next term includes job creation, public sector salary increases, and a focus on oil and gas exports, which have been bolstered by the European energy crisis stemming from the Ukraine conflict. However, the country still faces high unemployment, inflation, and public dissatisfaction, particularly among the youth.
Internationally, Tebboune has led efforts to restore the country’s diplomatic influence following a period of stagnation. His administration has focused on regional issues such as the Western Sahara conflict, the Sahel, and the Palestinian cause. While Algeria has made strides in diplomacy, including its election to the United Nations (UN) Security Council, challenges remain. This is especially so in the Sahel, where Algeria’s influence has diminished due to the rise of military regimes in neighboring countries Mali and Niger. Relations with Morocco, strained by the Western Sahara dispute, continue to be a source of tension.
Domestically, Tebboune faces the challenge of reviving civil society, which has been stifled under his leadership. Many activists from the Hirak movement, which ousted former President Abdelaziz Bouteflika, remain imprisoned or in exile. There are calls for Tebboune to ease restrictions on freedoms and engage with civil society to ensure stability. The success of his second term will largely depend on his ability to address these internal issues, manage economic challenges, and navigate the aforementioned complex regional relationships.
As Tebboune embarks on his second term, his leadership will be defined by both domestic and international challenges. Domestically, he’ll need to address the mounting economic pressures of unemployment and inflation, while also working to regain the trust of the younger population. Internationally, he faces the complex task of maintaining Algeria’s regional influence, especially in the Sahel and in its relations, or lack thereof, with Morocco. His success hinges on his ability to navigate these overlapping pressures while ensuring stability and delivering on his promises of economic growth and diplomatic renewal.
ASIA-PACIFIC (APAC)
Thailand Legalizes Same-Sex Marriage
On September 24, Thailand’s King Maha Vajiralongkorn gave final approval for legislation legalizing same-sex marriage. Previously, in June 2024, Thailand’s parliament had passed the bill and sent it to the King for his approval. Thailand has historically been tolerant of members of the LGBTQ+ community and an expansion of legal rights for the LGBTQ+ community has been anticipated. Now that the bill has been approved by King Vajiralongkorn, same-sex marriage will become legal in Thailand on January 22, 2025. With the passage and approval, Thailand will become the first country in Southeast Asia to legalize same sex marriage. Moreover, Thailand will be one of three countries in all of Asia, including Taiwan and Nepal, to legalize same-sex marriage. The passage of this legislation marks a significant victory for the LGBTQ+ community and celebrations over the bill’s passage have been observed nationwide. LGBTQ+ travelers may take further comfort in expressing themselves more openly while in the country. However, while public opinion polling consistently shows widespread support for members of the LGBTQ+ community, discrimination in certain areas remains a risk.
Segments of the Thai population, particularly in more rural areas, are likely to have unfavorable views of LGBTQ+ community members. It should also be noted that LGBTQ+ flags and other symbols have been previously associated with anti-government protest movements. Because the LGBTQ+ movement is perceived as part of anti-government movements, demonstrations over LGBTQ+ issues can, at times, draw the ire of pro-government supporters. The Bangkok Pride Parade in May 2024 did draw a limited number of individuals demonstrating against LGBTQ+ rights, however, the parade remained generally peaceful.
Thailand’s legalization of same-sex marriage could lead to other countries in the region expanding LGBTQ+ rights. In Japan, for example, the matter of LGBTQ+ rights remains a divisive issue. The Japanese government has yet to pass legislation that would enshrine the rights of the LGBTQ+ community in the country’s constitution. However, in March 2024, a Japanese High court ruled that denying same-sex marriage is unconstitutional. Despite a court ruling that the current status quo is unconstitutional, Japan’s legislature has yet to make any meaningful progress towards passing legislation in favor of protecting LGBTQ+ rights. However, the fact that a high court ruled that the current ban on same-sex marriage is unconstitutional means that Japan’s legislature must act to change the current laws. As Japan’s legislature continues to face pressure from the judicial system and the general population, the legalization of same-sex marriage in Japan, as such, is a possibility.
While progress towards equal rights for members of the LGBTQ+ community is gradually being made in the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region, discrimination is expected to continue. Culturally conservative communities that are opposed to LGBTQ+ rights can be found within every country in the APAC region. While legal protections defending the rights of the LGBTQ+ community exist in Thailand, Taiwan, and Nepal, isolated incidents of harassment and discrimination are likely to continue even in these countries. It is likely to take a longer period for the majority of nations within the APAC region to enact equal rights for all members of the LGBTQ+ community.
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
Increased Threat to Digital Activists Amidst Heightened Instability
Following recent protests in Kenya, surrounding the government’s attempts to pass an unpopular Finance Bill, and sporadic unrest since the peak of instability in late June 2024, there has been an increase of activists arrested. The arrests have particularly focused on activists leveraging social media platforms to raise their awareness, voice concerns, and call for citizens to participate in demonstrations. The increase of arrests of activists using social media underscores an increased threat to not only local digital activists but also to those who engage in online discussions that could be deemed divisive by the government.
In September, popular social media activist, David Morara Kebaso, was arrested in Kenya for alleged cyber-harassment. During the arrest, police reportedly arrived at Kebaso’s accommodations in Kahawa Sukari, neighborhood of the capital Nairobi, and confiscated his phones and laptops. Kebaso was released on bail but was subsequently re-arrested in October. The influencer is a well-known and outspoken activist who regularly highlights allegations against the government on corruption and misuse of public funds.
The arrest of Kebaso prompted immediate calls for protests and were driven on social media platforms under the hashtag ‘#FreeMorara.’ Demonstrations occurred in several parts of the country, with the largest presence in Nairobi. In the capital, protestors gathered outside the Nairobi Regional Police Headquarters where Kebaso was detained. Following the unrest in June and July 2024, coupled with the ongoing sporadic periods of unrest, tensions remain high in the country. Politically motivated arrests are not only becoming common, but the government is likely to increase additional resources to detect and prosecute against any form of digital activism.
Kenya has several laws that have been continually criticized for restricting freedom of expression with the intention of targeting activists, journalists, and monitoring social media users. Similarly, in April 2024, another popular digital activist and blogger, Duke Nyabaro, was found dead under mysterious circumstances. The incident followed several months of Nyabaro indicating he was facing threats and harassment. His death drew significant attention and prompted citizens to call for a stronger protection for freedom of expression rights in the country.
The Computer Misuse and Cybercrimes act, which Kebaso was accused of breaking, is a law that is used to prosecute individuals for online posts that are deemed defamatory or critical of public figures. The Kenya Information and Communications Act is a law that allows the Communications Authority to regulate broadcasting content and restrict the use of certain language in broadcasting. However, the respective laws have led to fines or suspension of media outlets, not for specific language use, but for being overly critical of the government.
The country has a history of monitoring and arresting digital activists and an increase in such arrests has been observed during the latest bouts of demonstrations and instability. Current and past trends suggest that the authorities are likely to not only further increase surveillance of activists, but also monitor citizens engaged on social media platforms and topics that relate to any criticisms of the government and related authorities.
EUROPE AND THE COMMONWEALTH OF INDEPENDENT STATES (ECIS)
New French Prime Minister Nominee Prompts Unrest
In September, nationwide protests were launched by left-wing demonstrators in response to President Emmanuel Macron appointing Michel Barnier to take over as prime minister. Participants were demanding the resignations of both Barnier and President Macron, the appointment of a New Popular Front (NFP) nominee as prime minister, and implementation of NFP party policies. The mass protests were the culmination of several months of political turmoil.
The controversy commenced with legislative snap elections called for by President Macron in June and July 2024. The elections were called in response to the considerable success achieved by the far-right National Rally (NR) party in the European Union (EU) parliament elections that were held in early June. The left-wing NFP political alliance ultimately won the largest number of seats following runoff elections held in July. Outgoing Prime Minister Gabriel Attal remained in office, in a caretaker capacity, while focus on the Paris Summer Games delayed the final nomination process.
Subsequently, President Macron announced on August 27 he would not accept the NFP nominee, Lucie Castets, for appointment to the premiership. NFP officials refused to engage with further nomination talks and accused President Macron of subverting the public’s will and not respecting the election results. A poll released on September 6 stated 74% of those polled believed President Macron disregarded the election results, but it did not specify if all participants polled voted. A follow up poll of voters indicated roughly half were pleased with Barnier’s appointment. Officials from other parties have blamed both Barnier’s appointment and the associated mass protests on the NFP for being unwilling to negotiate. Critics cited the NFP taking the position that they would only accept an NFP nominee to the premiership or none at all, as unproductive.
The number of protesters who participated in the September demonstrations is disputed. Protest organizers reported around 300,000 protesters participated nationwide; 160,000 of which were in the capital Paris. The French Interior Ministry, however, suggested that around 110,000 protesters were noted nationwide, with 26,000 in Paris. Protests were held in 130 areas in total outside of Paris and throughout France. Though the estimates for protesters varied widely, protest events passed off without major untoward incidents. Large-scale gatherings in France are generally peaceful but violent clashes with police during protests have been known to occur. Widespread protests will often result in significant delays to overland travel between destinations. Public transport can also become extremely congested and delayed due to large scale protests in major cities.
With France’s next presidential election scheduled to be held by April 2027, political tensions are expected to remain high throughout the remainder of President Macron’s second term of office. While further mass demonstrations against Barnier’s appointment as prime minister have not been called for, these cannot be ruled out. There remains various issues between the far-left and far-right groups in the country that are yet to be addressed by the current government. As such, it can be expected that further demonstrations over varied socio-economic issues, particularly immigration reforms, will likely occur.
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