Monthly Risk Spotlight: March 2025

AMERICAS 

Cryptocurrencies Adoption in Latin America: Opportunities and Challenges
In February 2024, President of Argentina, Javier Milei, publicly promoted the $LIBRA cryptocurrency token, claiming that it would provide stability for Argentina in the face of inflationary and economic turmoil. Shortly after the president advocated for the token, the value of $LIBRA rose from $0.000001 to $5.20 in under an hour. Only to then decrease to under $1 as the founders of $LIBRA pocketed over $85 million from mostly early Argentine investors. It has emerged that the move was a ‘rug pull’, or a cryptocurrency investment scam where the creators or developers of a cryptocurrency project suddenly abandon the project or exit scam, taking all the funds invested by users with them. The $LIBRA scandal has shaken trust in Milei’s credibility and reputation and highlighted the significant demand and adaptation of cryptocurrencies region wide.

Cryptocurrencies have significantly increased in popularity globally, particularly in the Americas due to weakened economic stability, high rates of inflation, and lack of financial services. Cryptocurrencies are most popular in places where nations have faced severe economic challenges and, most importantly, severe inflation. Countries like Argentina and Venezuela, respectively, which both suffer from hyperinflation, have seen some of the highest cryptocurrency adoption rates. Cryptocurrencies offer an alternative store of value and means to accumulate wealth outside of the typical national banking systems, where inflation impacts the value of a currency. Stablecoins, which $LIBRA was touted as being, are popular forms of cryptocurrency that are designed to maintain a stable value.  Unlike other highly volatile cryptocurrencies and national currencies, stablecoins are pegged to a fiat currency, like the United States (U.S.) dollar, or a commodity, like silver or gold, which, in theory, would not result in significant price changes.

Cryptocurrencies are also increasingly used to transfer money cheaply, efficiently and securely, while also avoiding traditional money exchange and money transfer fees. In countries like Colombia and Mexico, remittances from relatives working in the U.S. or elsewhere are most typically received in the form of cryptocurrencies, circumventing traditional banking and money exchange services like Western Union.

Nonetheless, cryptocurrencies do come with several risks. As adoption rates and popularity of these currencies increase in the Americas, the potential for fraud for both local nationals and travelers increases. A credible risk surrounding cryptocurrencies has long been its anonymity. By design, they are difficult to monitor and do not adhere to the same financial regulations as traditional banking. As a result, they have often been leveraged by elements of organized crime during illicit activities, including but not limited to, money laundering and terrorist financing. Despite being influenced to purchase $LIBRA tokens as a safe investment and endorsed by their President, over 40,000 investors lost their assets almost instantly. Many of these investors have taken legal action against the President, claiming Milei’s promotion constituted a deceptive practice that led to investment losses. However, there are currently no laws in Argentina that can clearly and effectively address cryptocurrency fraud.

Further complicating the issue, $LIBRA token access was available for users that had a digital wallet with Solana, a blockchain popular for its simplicity, and thus difficult to trace users’ transactions. This poses a significant risk to both travelers and Latin American cryptocurrency users. Cryptocurrency exchanges and digital wallets can be easily targeted and once a user falls victim to theft or fraud, there are very few resources they can utilize. Considering the intricacies and wide range of cryptocurrencies available, travelers should be aware of the major risks in using these currencies in the region.

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA (MENA)

Navigating Diplomatic Strains: France’s Immigration Debate with Algeria
On February 26, French Prime Minister François Bayrou threatened to review a 1968 migration pact with Algeria if the country refused to take back deportees. The agreement has historically made it easier for Algerians to settle in France, however, the deal has recently come under scrutiny following a deadly knife attack on February 22 in the city of Mulhouse (Haut-Rhin) by an Algerian national illegally residing in France. The attack left one person dead and six more wounded. According to a local prosecutor, the 37-year-old suspect was on a terrorist watch list and under legal obligation to leave France. French authorities had unsuccessfully attempted to repatriate the assailant; however, the request was allegedly refused by their Algerian counterparts. Persistent denials by Algerian authorities to repatriate undocumented Algerian nationals living in France have been a key component of the growing list of grievances.

Algeria, like many nations in the region, continues to face challenging diplomatic relationships after gaining independence. Since gaining independence from France in 1962, Algeria has expressed concerns about French foreign policy in the region, suggesting that it may be motivated by economic interests and a lingering sense of colonial influence. Algeria has raised issues regarding France’s ongoing involvement in regional matters, believing it affects the dynamics of the area. President Emmanuel Macron has pledged to invest in Western Sahara, joining other nations, including Spain, the United States (U.S.), and Israel, in supporting Morocco’s plan to establish sovereignty over the territory. Western Sahara, once a Spanish colony, is now mostly controlled by Morocco, with the Algerian-backed Polisario Front representing the indigenous Sahrawi people, who are advocating for the formation of an independent state. The announcement of Macron’s plan prompted Algeria to withdraw its ambassador from Paris. However, the energy crisis in Europe, coupled with historical ties, has compelled France to turn to Algeria for support. While France maintains strong economic ties with other European countries, such as Italy, Germany, and Spain, Algeria remains a key supplier of natural gas to France and hosts around 450 French companies. The significant historical ties forged through colonial legacies between the two countries necessitate respectful communication strategies to prevent further escalation.

Arguably, a contributing factor to Algeria and France’s strained relationship is their differing views on migration. Vehement statements by various members of the French government concerning Algeria and immigration likely stem from a desire to appease the far-right with their migration policies. The subject of immigration in France has been politicized for decades and has been used to sway votes in elections. Consistent with the current regional trend of politicizing immigration policy, comments made by Interior Minister Bruno Retailleau, a member of the right-wing Les Républicains party, are likely for domestic audiences. The intention to draft a list of hundreds of “dangerous” individuals to present to Algerian authorities in preparation for their deportation may be partly true but is likely aimed to demonstrate a tough stance on policy and acting in the broader populace’s best interest.

Should France decide to crack down on migration by adhering to right-wing policies, it could have consequences both domestically and internationally. If President Macron continues a laissez-faire attitude, it will likely embolden the conservative right and the far-right. If tensions continue to escalate, Algeria could apply the “principle of reciprocity,” potentially straining economic exchanges and security cooperation in the future. A defensive approach by Algeria to the proposed list of expulsions, or reneges on additional agreements with France, could lead to broader regional instability. Should France choose to honor the far-right’s hardline approach to migration, diplomatic ties could further fray, potentially making it difficult to repair.

ASIA-PACIFIC (APAC)

Kidnapping in the Philippines: A Renewed Threat
Throughout February, there were several kidnapping instances where foreign nationals were kidnapped for ransom in the Philippines. This sudden increase is notable, especially since kidnappings in the country decreased in recent years. However, it should be noted that local security forces in the Philippines were successful in rescuing the victims.

The first kidnapping took place on February 15 when a South Korean national was abducted while entering his home just north of the capital, Manila. According to the local police, ten men posing as immigration officials forcibly entered the South Korean national’s home and abducted him. In the following days, the kidnappers repeatedly called the victim’s family members and demanded a significant ransom. However, the victim was released after one week. Neither the South Korean government nor the police in the Philippines have commented on how the victim was released. Additionally, the South Korean Embassy in the Philippines has lauded the work of local security services in the locating and release efforts. The claims by the assailants that they were immigration officials remain a notable detail. Elements of organized crime often imitate government officials to present an air of legitimacy to their operation and catch potential victims off guard. Common with targeted kidnap for ransom operations, assailants often conduct prior research on potential victims assessing their ransom potential. As a result, foreign nationals are frequently targeted due to this potential in comparison to local nationals.

A second abduction of a foreign national occurred on February 20. In Taguig (National Capital Region) a 14-year-old Chinese student was kidnapped after leaving the British School in Manila. Notably, the British School in Manila directly caters to students from foreign countries as well as wealthy students from the Philippines. The kidnappers violently attacked the student’s vehicle, killed the driver, and abducted the student. It has been reported that the student was held for a week while the kidnappers repeatedly harassed the student’s family, demanding a payment. While unconfirmed, it has been reported that the kidnappers demanded upwards of twenty million United States Dollars (USD) for the release of the students. The kidnappers were reported to have mutilated the student in an attempt to force their parents to quickly pay the large ransom. However, after an extensive police rescue effort, the student was found alive in the Paranaque area of Manila. This incident highlights the often-violent nature of kidnap for ransom plots. Consistent with a global precedent, the risk of kidnapping of foreign nationals is particularly high in lower income countries like the Philippines. Local economic disparities impact opportunities to find consistent work and organized crime becomes the only viable option for some. Due to the lucrative nature of kidnap-for-ransom operations, it has motivated several groups, both organized crime and insurgency alike, to leverage it as a legitimate funding mechanism for other operations. Some of the most prolific domestic groups include former fighters of the officially disbanded Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), the Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG), as well as a plethora of other criminal groups. Historically, most kidnapping cases in the Philippines have been perpetrated by insurgents associated with these groups. The two recent incidents of kidnappings both took place in Manilla, highlighting the risk of kidnapping in larger cities and not just rural areas. These examples present an elevated risk for similar incidents, nationwide.

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

An Increase in Ebola Cases Causes Concern for Uganda
In early February, suspected cases of Ebola began to rise in Uganda following the declaration of an outbreak on January 30 by health officials. The outbreak’s strain was identified as the Sudan Ebola Virus Disease (SUDV) variant of Ebola virus disease (EDV) following the death of a healthcare worker. The victim traveled to multiple locations seeking treatment, including a public hospital in Mbale (Mbale district) near the Kenyan border before succumbing to the disease in the capital of Kampala.

In the early stages of the outbreak, initial tracing efforts identified 44 individuals who came in close contact with the victim and were exposed to SUDV. With Kampala having a dense population and serving as a popular destination for international travel in the region, locating contacts and containing the infection’s spread proved challenging. Officials advised residents to report any potential new cases of SUDV to health authorities as soon as possible and to use enhanced hygiene measures. During such outbreaks, the general public may also be advised by health officials to avoid hospital visits, unless they are experiencing a serious medical emergency, as patients may be at risk for SUDV infection.

On February 3, two new infections were confirmed shortly following the first patient’s death. On February 4, Ugandan health officials began a clinical trial for the SUDV Ebola variant. Officials began administering the trial vaccine to close contacts confirmed to have been exposed to infected patients. Currently, there is no approved vaccine against the SUDV variant. The outbreak continued to rapidly expand with a total of seven active cases and 298 exposures confirmed on February 6. All cases involve healthcare workers or personal contacts who were exposed through the first patient to die at the onset of the outbreak. Cases continue to be identified in Kampala and its Mulago neighborhood, Mbale, and other urban centers, including Matugga (Wakiso district).

On February 11, health officials reported nine confirmed cases, one fatality, and 265 other patients in quarantine for monitoring. Seven of the confirmed cases were hospitalized in Kampala at that time. On February 18, while some contact case patients remained under quarantine for monitoring, all active case patients were discharged from hospitalization in Kampala. However, public confidence in the outbreak being under control was shattered when a second, previously unknown case resulted in death on March 2.

Ebola outbreaks are not uncommon in Uganda, as this is the sixth declared outbreak. Given the lethality of Ebola and the history of previous outbreaks, including a recent outbreak from September 2022 to January 2023 that killed 55 patients, the potential for a similar escalation of the outbreak cannot be definitively ruled out.

EUROPE AND THE COMMONWEALTH OF INDEPENDENT STATES (ECIS) 

Extremist Resurgence: The Islamic State (IS), TikTok, and Lone Wolves
Since 2024, Europe has witnessed shifts in the terrorist landscape characterized by a resurgence from IS, rapid radicalization of teenagers through social media, and lone-wolf attacks. These trends present a myriad of risks for travelers regionally, especially as major holidays like Easter and Labor Day approach. As these dates draw near and large crowds of tourists and locals alike begin to take advantage of the warmer weather, and the festivals and markets that come with them, the risk of mass casualty attacks is likely to increase. The risk will be especially elevated in Austria, France, and Germany, which have been the epicenter of recent attacks across Europe.

After IS was territorially defeated in 2019, the group appeared to shift to a low-profile approach. However, with the rise of IS-Khorasan (IS-K), the group has witnessed a global resurgence. Europe has particularly been affected by a significant increase in IS and Islamist-linked plots since January 2024. For reference, in 2022, there were 6 completed or foiled IS and Islamist terrorist attacks in Europe. By 2024, that number more than quadrupled to at least 27 plots or attacks. The upward trend has continued into 2025, with at least 6 attacks, most of which are alleged to be IS-inspired, taking place between January 1 and March 3. The upward trend in IS-linked attacks is especially concerning, as they have historically been more deadly and targeted larger crowds compared to right-wing and left-wing attacks. The capability and deadliness of the group was best exemplified by the March 2024 Crocus city hall attack near Moscow, Russia, that resulted in 137 deaths and more than 100 injuries.

IS has sought to exploit newer and less regulated social media platforms to target young teenagers for radicalization and to conduct attacks. The militant group has specifically utilized TikTok to recruit teenagers across Europe before funneling them to Telegram to form cells and plan attacks. Leveraging the successes that IS had following its initial rise in 2014, IS-K has continued to invest considerable attention in its propaganda material to reflect modern trends. The fast-paced style of these videos and the online recruitment pipeline have led to more rapid radicalization, making it difficult for authorities to identify potential threats. These recruitment efforts have had significant success. Of the 58 people arrested in 27 Islamist extremist plots between November 2024 to July 2024, 38 were between the ages of 13 and 19. In August 2024, the threat of young extremists was highlighted after Taylor Swift concerts in Vienna, Austria, were cancelled due to 3 IS-inspired teenagers who planned to attack tens of thousands of people with explosives and knives.

The prevalence of lone wolf attacks has also increased across the continent. Lone wolf attacks are difficult for the authorities to intercept due to their spontaneity and compartmentalization. Lone wolves have increasingly utilized rudimentary weapons to carry out their attacks due to relatively strict gun laws across the continent and the complexity of building explosives. Notably, knife and car-ramming attacks have become prevalent, with the latter posing a particularly potent threat. Between December 2024 and March 2025, at least three car-ramming attacks took place across Germany, resulting in at least 8 deaths and about 250 injuries. The rise in lone-wolf and car-ramming attacks puts people in crowded areas at greater risk, especially if they are outdoors, due to the difficulty in identifying such threats.

The resurgence of IS-linked threats across Europe underscores a shifting security landscape, particularly as major holidays approach. The combination of IS-K’s sophisticated online recruitment tactics, the increasing prevalence of radicalized teenagers, and the rise in lone-wolf attacks using rudimentary weapons presents a persistent challenge for authorities and travelers alike. Despite security services remaining actively engaged in counterterrorism efforts, the unpredictability of lone-wolf, particularly vehicular attacks, remains a pertinent threat as upcoming holiday celebrations are leveraged for maximum effect.

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