Monthly Risk Spotlight: June 2025

AMERICAS 

Bolivia’s Election Crisis: Bans and Betrayals
With Bolivia’s general election on the horizon in August, the country’s political landscape is fracturing at a critical juncture. The ruling Movement Towards Socialism (MAS), once unified under a leftist populist platform, is now split between supporters of President Luis Arce and those of former President Evo Morales. This rift, combined with judicial bans, roadblocks, and economic instability, has created one of the most volatile electoral periods in Bolivia’s modern history.

The latest flashpoint came on June 2, when large-scale protests and roadblocks erupted nationwide after the Constitutional Court barred Morales from seeking a fourth term. Though grounded in constitutional term limits, Moralas’ supporters criticized it as politically motivated.  In response, roadblocks—primarily led by indigenous activists in Cochabamba, La Paz, and El Alto—have disrupted fuel and food distribution, amplifying public frustration and economic pressures.

At the core of the unrest is a deepening schism within MAS. Morales, who governed from 2006 to 2019, accuses Arce of betraying the party’s revolutionary roots. Arce, in turn, claims Moralas is destabilizing the country and undermining democratic norms through mass mobilization. Morales’ alignment with the lesser-known Frente para la Victoria (FPV) party—a departure from his traditional alliances with indigenous and socialist groups—has further fueled accusations of opportunism.

Meanwhile, President Arce’s administration faces mounting economic challenges. Inflation, foreign currency shortages, and fuel disruptions, exacerbated by austerity measures tied to external lending agreements, have eroded public confidence. These issues threaten MAS’s electoral and could contribute to increased protest activity, especially in rural and indigenous communities. Yet the conservative opposition remains fragmented, offering limited clarity on a viable third candidate.

In the weeks ahead, Bolivia is likely to see continued protests, legal disputes over candidacy eligibility, and a decline in institutional trust in the lead-up to the election. Morales’ supporters are unlikely to accept the ban quietly, while Arce’s administration must balance political legitimacy with economic instability. The longer the deadlock persists, the greater the risk of confrontation between rival political blocs or between protesters and state forces.

As Bolivia edges toward a highly contested election, the stakes for governance, economic stability, and public trust are higher than ever. Whether the ballot resolves these tensions or deepens the fractures is expected to shape Bolivia’s trajectory for years to come.

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA (MENA)

Rising Ideology, Strategy, and Conflict: The Israel-Iran Relationship in Historical Perspective
The relationship between Israel and Iran has undergone significant transformations over the past century, evolving from strategic cooperation to deep-seated hostility. This evolution reflects broader geopolitical shifts in the Middle East and internal political dynamics within both nations, providing essential context for the current situation between the countries.

Following Israel’s establishment in 1948, Iran, under the Pahlavi monarchy, was one of the few Muslim-majority countries to engage diplomatically with the Jewish state. Although Iran initially voted against both the United Nations Partition Plan in 1947 and Israel’s admission to the United Nations (UN) in 1949, Iran formally recognized Israel de facto in the 1950s. During Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi’s reign, the two nations forged a discreet yet robust alliance, characterized by intelligence sharing, military collaboration, and economic partnerships.

Israel provided Iran with expertise in agriculture and technology, while Iran supplied oil to Israel. This partnership aligned with Israel’s “periphery doctrine,” a strategic initiative to build alliances with non-Arab states in the region.

The 1979 Iranian Revolution marked a turning point in Israel-Iran relations. The overthrow of the Shah and the establishment of the Islamic Republic under Ayatollah Khomeini ushered in an ideologically driven foreign policy that rejected Israel’s legitimacy. Viewing Israel as an illegitimate state and a symbol of Western imperialism, the Islamic Republic severed all diplomatic and commercial ties with Israel.

Iran has been widely reported to support various states and groups that shared its anti-Israeli stance, particularly Hezbollah and Hamas. Through financial assistance, military training, and arms transfers, Iran developed a network of proxies committed to undermining Israeli security and expanding Iranian influence across the Middle East.

Iran’s pursuit of nuclear capabilities, coupled with its continued support for anti-Israel groups, has exacerbated hostilities. Israel has responded with covert operations aimed at disrupting Iran’s nuclear progress.

The Syrian Civil War further intensified the rivalry. Israel launched airstrikes against Iranian targets in Syria to prevent the establishment of Iranian military infrastructure near its borders. Direct military exchanges between the two nations, including missile strikes and high-profile assassinations, have been reported in recent years.

Most recently, in the early hours of 13 June, the Israeli Air Force (IAF) launched coordinated preemptive strikes on multiple high-value targets (HVTs) in Iran, including but not limited to military infrastructure and nuclear development sites in and around the capital, Tehran. This marks a significant escalation in tensions between the two regional powers and is the most direct military engagement between the nations in over a decade. A state of emergency has been declared in both countries, with heightened military readiness and widespread disruption to civilian life and commercial aviation.

The trajectory of Israel-Iran relations remains fraught with hostility, driven by ideological opposition, regional power struggles, and conflicting alliances. The likelihood of further asymmetric confrontations-via cyberattacks, proxy engagements, or missile strikes- remain high over the next 6–12 months. A diplomatic breakthrough remains unlikely without significant leadership change or external mediation. The risk to regional infrastructure may escalate if Israel perceives an escalation in Iran’s nuclear or proxy activities. As these dynamics persist, the enmity between Israel and Iran will continue to shape the strategic landscape of the Middle East.

ASIA-PACIFIC (APAC)

Strict Legal System Highlights Necessity of Following Local Laws in Indonesia
On June 5, Indonesian security services in Bali announced the arrest of three foreign nationals on charges related to illicit narcotics.  The individuals, from Australia, India, and the United States (U.S.), were apprehended after airport authorities at Ngurah Rai International Airport (DPS) discovered drug-related items during a baggage inspection. The incident led to further arrests, and authorities claimed to disrupt a trafficking ring operating on the island.

This case mirrors a similar event in May 2025, when an American expatriate in Jakarta was arrested for drug trafficking. Despite diplomatic efforts by the U.S. embassy to secure the individual’s release, local authorities refused to extradite, underscoring the gravity with which the government treats such offenses. These incidents reaffirm Indonesia’s long-standing commitment to upholding one of the strictest anti-narcotics frameworks in the region, particularly when foreign nationals are involved.

Indonesia, and Bali in particular, is a top destination for international travelers. Known for its vibrant nightlife and beach resorts, the island attracts millions of tourists each year. This popularity has also drawn increased scrutiny from authorities. In response to the uptick in illicit activity, authorities have intensified counter-narcotics efforts with enhanced border checks, undercover operations, and collaboration with international agencies.

Despite Bali’s reputation as a party hub, local drug laws are uncompromising. Possession of even small quantities can lead to decades in prison, while trafficking charges may result in capital punishment. As of mid-2025, 96 foreign nationals are reported to be on death row in Indonesia for drug-related offenses. The last known executions occurred in 2016, but the precedent remains active. Diplomatic intervention often has little impact, as seen in the 2015 execution of two Australians despite significant international opposition.

For organizations, these cases serve as more than cautionary tales; they represent systemic risk. Foreign nationals may believe that diplomatic status offers protection, but local authorities assert judicial sovereignty and can be unyielding in high-profile cases. While consular assistance helps individuals navigate legal proceedings, embassies cannot override domestic law.

Organizations operating in Indonesia should incorporate legal risk into their travel risk frameworks. Events involving foreign nationals frequently attract media attention, diplomatic strain, and reputational damage. Travelers who engage willingly or unknowingly in illegal activity could face detrimental personal and professional risk.

Although most visits to Indonesia are incident-free, recent arrests reinforce a critical truth: in jurisdictions with strict drug laws, a single misstep can have life-altering consequences.

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

Misinformation Surge in Côte D’Ivoire (Ivory Coast) Highlights Electoral Volatility Ahead of October Polls
On May 22, unverified social media reports claimed a military coup was underway in Abidjan, the commercial capital of Ivory Coast. The posts alleged dozens of fatalities and claimed that President Alassane Ouattara was missing following violent clashes.  Accompanying footage, later identified as a marketplace fire from February, was presented out of context to bolster the false narrative. By May 23, local authorities and the National Agency for Information Systems Security (ANSSI) debunked the claims, and residents in Abidjan, along with independent media outlets, confirmed there had been no such unrest.

Although swiftly disproven, the fabricated coup story reflects a broader trend of politically motivated disinformation targeting the Ivory Coast’s increasingly tense pre-election environment. Analysts assess that the false reports were likely intended to incite unrest and deepen distrust in Ouattara’s administration. With the next presidential election scheduled for October 2025, concerns are mounting over political exclusion, leadership succession, and the potential for renewed instability.

Much of the current tension stems from President Ouattara’s refusal to rule out a fourth-term bid, an unprecedented and controversial move that has polarized the electorate. Memories of the 2020 election, marred by violence and contested legitimacy, remain fresh. Many fear a repeat scenario, particularly if opposition groups are sidelined.

The exclusion of prominent opposition figure Tidjane Thiam, leader of the Democratic Party of Ivory Coast (PDCI), has further exacerbated tensions. In late April, a court ruling disqualified Thiam from contesting the election, citing unresolved legal issues. While not unexpected by regional analysts, the ruling has been widely perceived as part of a broader pattern of suppressing dissent. Thiam was regarded as the strongest potential challenger to the ruling regime, and his removal significantly alters the political landscape.

In late May, the Independent Electoral Commission confirmed that the candidate list would be finalized in early June, with no further appeals permitted, solidifying Thiam’s exclusion. Although large-scale protests have yet to materialize, opposition groups are expected to ramp up mobilization efforts, and demonstrations may intensify as the October election nears.

The coup hoax emphasizes the growing role of misinformation in shaping political narratives in West Africa. Social media platforms remain vulnerable to manipulation by both opposition actors and state-linked interests. Analysts assess that politically motivated disinformation, both foreign and domestic, is likely to escalate in the coming months. The Ouattara government has previously leveraged state-aligned media to discredit opposition voices, further blurring the lines between fact and propaganda in the public domain.

The recent events highlight the fragility of Ivory Coast’s political environment and the influence of disinformation on public perception. With tensions expected to intensify in the lead-up to October, stakeholders should adopt a proactive posture in monitoring risk and supporting informed decision-making on the ground.

EUROPE AND THE COMMONWEALTH OF INDEPENDENT STATES (ECIS) 

Sporting Celebrations and Civil Unrest at Recent Football Events
Social, psychological, and environmental factors can influence the potential for disruptive behavior during and after major sporting events in Europe, underscoring the value of proactive awareness and preparedness among event organizers, local authorities, and attendees. While most fans attend games in a celebratory spirit, recent incidents demonstrate how quickly large-scale gatherings can turn volatile, particularly when fueled by rivalries, alcohol, and insufficient crowd control.

On the night of May 31 into June 1, widespread unrest broke out in the French capital, Paris, following Paris Saint-Germain’s (PSG) Champions League final victory. What began as a mass public celebration descended into violence, resulting in two deaths, 559 arrests, and nearly 200 injuries, including 22 police officers and seven firefighters. Concentrated around the Place des Ternes, the unrest involved widespread property damage: looting, vehicle arson, and destruction of public infrastructure. According to the French Interior Ministry, 264 vehicles were torched.

PSG’s victory parade the next day proceeded peacefully under heavy security, underscoring how factors like alcohol, poor containment measures, and emotionally charged crowds can escalate celebrations into chaos.

Such incidents are not isolated. Similar flashpoints have emerged across Europe over recent years. In Amsterdam in 2024, 62 people were arrested and 35 injured after violence erupted following an Ajax vs. Maccabi Tel Aviv match. In 2023, a fatal clash between AEK Athens and Dinamo Zagreb supporters in suburban Athens left one dead and several injured. Euro 2016 also saw major disturbances in Marseille, where England and Russia supporters clashed violently, resulting in multiple hospitalizations and arrests.

These recurring incidents can point to a systemic issue across European football culture. Political, ethnic, and regional tensions are often reflected in team allegiances, with matches serving as outlets for deeper societal grievances. Far right and nationalist supporter groups, particularly in parts of Eastern and Southern Europe, further heighten the potential for ideologically driven clashes. International travelers and expatriates unfamiliar with these dynamics may underestimate the risks.

Travelers should maintain heightened awareness in the lead-up to high-profile matches and be particularly cautious in areas known for fan gatherings, such as central squares, bar districts, and stadium precincts. Real-time monitoring of local news and social media can provide helpful indicators of crowd movements, though misinformation remains a concern. During major sporting events, it is advisable to avoid public transport during peak crowd times, plan routes with alternative exits in mind, and steer clear of locations with a history of post-match unrest. Organizations should ensure staff are briefed in advance and that contingency plans are in place to support mobility and safety, particularly for personnel operating in central urban areas.

While football remains a deeply unifying cultural force in Europe, its ability to ignite unrest in emotionally charged settings is well established. Understanding the underlying triggers and preparing accordingly is essential to reducing risk in what might otherwise seem like celebratory moments.

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