AMERICAS
Hurricane Season Impact and Longer-Term Consequences
Hurricane Beryl, the second named storm of the 2024 hurricane season, has broken several records, from earliest forming Category 4 & 5 hurricane in the Atlantic to also being one of the earliest hurricanes to form east of the Windward Islands. With predictions that the 2024 hurricane season will be one of the most active on record, and the ecological and economic impact of Beryl already so significant, it’s important to look at the long-term impacts a destructive hurricane season can have on nations that are located in the pathway of these storm systems.
Excluding the destructive force of hurricane winds, which has been witnessed most recently with Beryl, the most immediate consequence or concern of a major hurricane is deluge of water. Hurricane Beryl rapidly strengthened to a Category 5 storm principally off record high temperatures in the Atlantic, which served to enhance the strength of the hurricane. When a hurricane picks up significant moisture from the ocean, it is offloaded in the form of torrential downpours. The amount of rain a hurricane can unload in a 24-hour period can often be more rainfall than an impacted area will normally accumulate throughout an entire annual record. Inland and far from the coastline, severe flooding and inundations can occur, which is then compounded by the strong winds pushing waves and storm surges onto coastal land. If the rainwater cannot flow back into the ocean due to the high winds and storm surges, or due to improper drainage infrastructure, several other destructive scenarios will most definitely occur.
Areas flooded by hurricanes can experience severe destruction of agriculture lands, consequently threatening food security. Additionally, hurricanes can overload sewer systems, which can increase the risk of transmitting communicable diseases in affected areas and limit access to potable water. After Hurricane Beryl passed the Windward Islands, the immediate damage caused by the hurricane-force winds was the severe destruction of residences and public buildings. However, a more worrying long-term danger for residents in hurricane-hit areas is that nearly all crops are destroyed during the passage of major storms. Moreover, fresh water sources all become contaminated; as the storm surge introduces salt water to the drinking supply, and sewer water either contaminates fresh water supplies or overwhelms the sewer system, also resulting in open sewage overflowing onto the streets. Long after the heavy rainfall and strong winds have passed, locals and visitors alike will need to contend with the basics, such as finding adequate food supplies and water.
MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA (MENA)
Hezbollah and the Risk of Conflict Escalation With Israel
With the potential for an Israeli Defense Force (IDF) operation in southern Lebanon, understanding Hezbollah and the challenges that might arise is crucial. Hezbollah, or the Party of God, is a Shia Islamist political and militant organization founded in the early 1980s during the Lebanese Civil War. It emerged with support from Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and was inspired by the Iranian Revolution, also responding to the 1982 Israeli conflict with Lebanon.
Hezbollah’s primary goals include establishing an Islamic state in Lebanon and resisting Israeli occupation and Western influence in the region. Its ideology is heavily influenced by Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khomeini, advocating for Islamic governance and resistance against perceived oppressors. Over the years, Hezbollah’s objectives have evolved to balance revolutionary goals with the practical needs of engaging in Lebanese politics and providing social services to its supporters.
Militarily, Hezbollah is renowned for its extensive capabilities, having engaged in numerous conflicts with Israel, notably employing guerrilla warfare and rocket attacks. Supported and funded by Iran, it has built a sophisticated military infrastructure in southern Lebanon, including an extensive network of tunnels and bunkers. This infrastructure allows effective guerrilla operations and defense against Israeli attacks.
Politically, Hezbollah holds a substantial presence and sway in Lebanon; participating in elections, holding parliamentary seats, and having members in the cabinet. Its political arm plays a crucial role in forming coalitions and influencing government policies. Additionally, Hezbollah’s provision of social services like schools, hospitals, and welfare programs has garnered significant support from Lebanon’s Shia population, strengthening its political legitimacy.
Internationally, Hezbollah is designated as a terrorist organization by several countries, including but not limited to: Canada, Israel, the United States (U.S.), and several member states of the European Union (EU). The group has been implicated in terrorist attacks worldwide, such as the 1983 bombing of the U.S. Marine barracks in Lebanon’s capital, Beirut, and the 1994 AMIA bombing in Argentina. These actions have isolated Hezbollah internationally, but continued support from Iran and other regional allies has allowed it to maintain its operations. The group’s involvement in illicit activities like drug trafficking and money laundering has also drawn international scrutiny and sanctions.
Hezbollah’s strength is a strategic asset for Iran in its confrontation with Israel and efforts to expand its influence in the Arab world. The group’s ability to operate across borders and engage in regional conflicts makes it a key player in Middle Eastern geopolitics. Its support base in southern Lebanon, the Beqaa Valley, and Beirut’s southern suburbs, bolstered by extensive military infrastructure and social services, underpins its resilience and capacity for mobilization.
If an Israeli operation were to occur, the future of Hezbollah would hinge on the conflict’s intensity and duration. Hezbollah would likely retaliate through its extensive military infrastructure, with its ability to sustain prolonged conflict dependent on Iranian support and resource mobilization. Domestically, an Israeli operation could solidify Hezbollah’s support among Lebanon’s Shia population, casting it as a defender against aggression. Conversely, it could deepen political and social divisions, especially if the conflict leads to severe economic and humanitarian crises. Internationally, increased scrutiny and potential global intervention could further isolate Hezbollah or entangle it in broader regional alliances and conflicts.
ASIA-PACIFIC (APAC)
Thailand Legalizes Same-Sex Marriage
Thailand’s recent parliamentary approval of a same-sex marriage bill marks a historic moment for the nation and the broader Southeast Asian region. The bill, which passed the lower house with overwhelming support, and the Senate with a significant majority, is now awaiting royal endorsement. This milestone legislation, expected to become law by the end of 2024, would make Thailand the first country in Southeast Asia and the third in Asia to legalize same-sex marriage, following Nepal and Taiwan.
The bill amends Thailand’s Civil and Commercial Code to redefine marriage as a partnership between two individuals, rather than strictly between a man and a woman. This change ensures that LGBTQI+ couples receive the same legal rights as heterosexual couples, including marital tax savings, inheritance rights, and the ability to provide medical consent for incapacitated partners. Additionally, same-sex couples will be permitted to adopt children, although the bill retains the traditional terms “father” and “mother” rather than adopting a more inclusive term like “parent.”
This legislative move is seen as a critical step toward equality and is expected to solidify Thailand’s reputation as an LGBTQI+ friendly nation in a region where such acceptance is rare. Danuphorn Punnakanta, a member of parliament (MP) and chairman of the lower house’s committee on marriage equality, emphasized that the bill is about restoring fundamental rights to the LGBTQI+ community, rather than granting new ones. This perspective reflects the broader societal shift towards recognizing and addressing the rights of LGBTQI+ individuals.
The significance of this legislation extends beyond Thailand’s borders. In a region where same-sex intimacy is criminalized in several countries, Thailand’s move towards marriage equality stands as a beacon of progress. It positions Thailand as a leader in LGBTQI+ rights within Southeast Asia and sets an example for other nations grappling with similar issues. The passage of this bill follows a pattern seen in other Asian countries, such as Taiwan’s legalization of same-sex marriage in 2019 and Nepal’s recent recognition of same-sex unions. For Thailand, this legislation not only enhances its global image as a welcoming and inclusive destination, but also aligns with its historical openness towards LGBTQI+ individuals. Thailand has long been a haven for LGBTQI+ tourists and a hub for transgender individuals seeking gender-affirming healthcare. However, despite this progressive stance, there remains significant gaps in legal protections for transgender people in Thailand. Activists argue that the momentum from this marriage equality bill should propel further legal reforms to safeguard the rights of transgender individuals.
The broad public support for this bill, evidenced by a government survey showing 96.6% approval, highlights the Thai populace’s readiness for change. Political parties across the spectrum, including the ruling Pheu Thai party and the opposition Move Forward party, have championed this cause, reflecting a unified political will to advance LGBTQI+ rights. Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin’s vocal support since taking office further underscores the government’s commitment to this issue.
The impact of this legislation is profound for both Thai citizens and international stakeholders. For LGBTQI+ individuals, it promises a future of greater acceptance and legal protection. For global observers, Thailand’s legislative progress provides a hopeful precedent that may inspire similar actions in other countries. As Thailand prepares for this law to come into effect, it stands at the forefront of a regional shift towards greater equality and inclusion for LGBTQI+ communities. This landmark decision is not just a victory for Thailand, but a significant stride for human rights and social justice in Asia.
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
Kenyans Continue Protests as Finance Bill is Withdrawn
Kenya is in the middle of a government debt crisis. To sustain economic growth, the government has been spending money on projects such as improving infrastructure and healthcare facilities nationwide. In recent years, the government has increasingly relied on borrowing money to finance government spending. President Ruto and his allies in the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) have claimed that the government’s borrowing and level of debt are unsustainable. President Ruto and members of the Kenyan parliament have suggested a tax increase to expand funding for the government. The tax increase was included in a piece of legislation called the Finance Bill. Soon after being proposed, the Finance Bill was met with immediate opposition from both inside parliament and among the population of Kenya. The average monthly wage in Kenya is equivalent to $235 USD per month, with many local nationals earning severely under this figure. Large-scale political demonstrations against the bill materialized on June 18 and intensified as the bill continued to advance through Parliament.
Since June 18, large political demonstrations have occurred in Kenya over the government’s plan to increase taxes. Over the course of several weeks, these demonstrations have become violent, causing a plurality of fatalities and injuries. Demonstrations occurred nationwide with the most disruptive protests reportedly taking place in the capital of Nairobi. Additionally, it is reported that protests have periodically occurred in other urban centers: cities of Eldoret (Uasin Gishu County), Embu (Embu County), Kisumu (Kisumu County), Mombasa (Mombasa County), Nakuru (Nakuru County), and Nyeri (Nyeri County). These demonstrations have occurred regularly and remain ongoing. The heavy-handed response by security services continues to amplify the violence, causing the security situation to deteriorate across the country. While local authorities have suspended their plans to increase taxes, the protests are ongoing with demonstrators now calling on President William Ruto to resign. At this moment, it appears the government has few means of resolving Kenya’s economic afflictions while also preventing future unrest.
The most tumultuous demonstrations occurred on June 25; the same day parliament was scheduled to hold a vote on the Finance Bill. In Nairobi, protesters tried to storm the parliament building and disrupt the voting process. Security services in Nairobi were reported to have used live ammunition to disperse the crowd, leading to five deaths and 31 injuries. Additionally, demonstrations in Mombasa resulted in violence and many businesses temporarily shut down operations. Moreover, telecommunications services in Kenya were disrupted on June 25; however, telecommunication networks have since been fully operational. Since June 18, in total, 39 people have died due to the violent demonstrations. These protests were the most violent and disruptive demonstrations that Kenya has experienced in recent years.
Due to the violent response from the public, on June 26, President Ruto withdrew the bill from parliament. However, demonstrations calling for Ruto to resign have been a common occurrence throughout June and July. Like the protests against the Finance Bill, these demonstrations have been violent in nature and have caused disruptions. President Ruto’s attempts to enact the Finance Bill has made him deeply unpopular throughout the country and as such, political demonstrations can be expected to persist in the near term.
EUROPE AND THE COMMONWEALTH OF INDEPENDENT STATES (ECIS)
Anti-Tourism Protests Increase Across the Region
In July, it was reported that anti-tourism protesters used water pistols to spray water at tourists in Barcelona, Spain, and also participated in large-scale marches through popular tourist locations. Protesters carried signs saying, “Tourists go home” and “Barcelona is not for sale.” Notably, the use of water pistols to target diners at restaurants popular with tourists circulated on social media very quickly. While many on social media found these protests comical, such anti-tourism protests can eventually present a threat of further disturbance and distress.
The organizers of the protest, led by the Assemblea de Barris pel Decreixement Turistic, stated that their grievances against tourism pertains to the steep increase of living/rental costs for locals, and the increase of social inequality due to the tourism industry’s distribution of profits. Though there are credible economic benefits of tourism, many of these benefits are being overshadowed by disruptions and disrespect towards the local lifestyle and culture. Many of the anti-tourism protests note that although there have always been badly behaved tourists, the prominent difference is that there is now an increase in the volume of such visitors.
Since April, several areas synonymous with nightlife and tourist hotspots, such as the Canary Islands, Ibiza, and Mallorca (both Balearic Islands) have also held anti-tourism protests. Similar anti-tourist protests have been seen in other notable regional tourist locations, including but not limited to: Athens, Santorini (both Greece), Dubrovnik, Croatia, Venice, Italy, parts of Austria and Switzerland.
Governmental tourist management is expected to become a larger political conversation. Local authorities in many areas have already initiated steps to assist in deterring tourism disruption. Measures include but are not limited to, implementing alcohol restrictions, tourist day fees at specific destinations such as remote beach access, or citywide such as in Venice. Moreover, in Barcelona, local authorities have removed a local bus route from Google Maps. In reaction to Barcelona’s July protests, the city’s Mayor Jaume Collboni, re-announced a series of measures that are planned to reduce the impact of mass tourism. These measures include increasing the nightly tourist tax to 4 Euro (4.30 USD) and limiting the number of cruise ship passengers. An increasing grievance in Barcelona is the housing crisis, often blamed on apartment rentals by tourists; Collboni announced that the city is working towards efforts to end short-term apartment rentals by 2028.
The World Travel Council announced that they predict a record-breaking year for tourism in 2024. It is expected, particularly following the COVID-19 pandemic, that there will continue to be an increase in tourism across the region and this can subsequently increase grievances towards tourists. It’s advised that travelers remain respectful and avoid rambunctious activities, however, it’s important to note that anti-tourist protests can target any area or group regardless of provocation.
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