AFRICA
Renewed Tigray Fighting Threatens Ethiopia’s Wider Security Environment
The 2020-2022 Tigray War ended with the Pretoria Peace Agreement, but long-standing territorial, political, and security disputes between Ethiopia’s federal government and Tigrayan leaders have remained unresolved. Those tensions resurfaced on August 1 when clashes between the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) erupted in western Tigray near the Sudanese border, raising concerns about the durability of the peace process. While the fighting remains localized, renewed conflict has the potential to exacerbate Ethiopia’s already complex security environment, placing additional strain on federal resources and increasing the risk of broader operational disruptions affecting movement, communications, medical access, supply chains, and evacuation capabilities.
The confrontation reflects unresolved territorial, political, and security grievances between federal authorities and Tigrayan leaders, with both sides accusing the other of initiating the fighting. Despite efforts by the United States (U.S.) and the African Union (AU) to preserve the peace process, the renewed violence illustrates the agreement’s continued fragility. The consequences of the 2020–2022 war remain relevant because they show how quickly escalation can overwhelm already strained humanitarian, healthcare, and economic systems.
Renewed fighting could trigger road closures, additional checkpoints, telecommunications disruptions, fuel shortages, and intermittent movement restrictions, particularly along routes linking Tigray with Amhara, Afar, and the Eritrean border. Domestic flights could also be suspended or rescheduled if security conditions deteriorate, or federal authorities impose emergency measures. Foreign nationals are unlikely to be specifically targeted outside Tigray, but could face indirect risks from access constraints, degraded medical services, supply-chain disruption, civil unrest, and limited evacuation options. If tensions escalate, this could also divert federal security resources from other regions, potentially creating opportunities for unrest or opportunistic violence elsewhere, including around major urban centers and transit hubs such as the capital, Addis Ababa.
Shifting alliances further complicate the outlook. In mid-August, TPLF Vice President Amanuel Assefa stated that the group was willing to collaborate with forces fighting the federal government. Ethiopian authorities have portrayed this as evidence that the TPLF could seek support from actors including Eritrea or the Amhara-region Fano militia, despite both having previously fought against the TPLF. The ENDF is also engaged against the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) in Oromia, stretching federal forces across multiple internal fronts. Wider regional rivalries could add further pressure, particularly if neighboring states perceive strategic opportunities amid continued instability. Even if the TPLF remains militarily weaker than the ENDF, shifting relationships among domestic insurgents, paramilitaries, and regional actors could make renewed conflict more difficult to contain than a geographically isolated confrontation.
The effects could extend beyond active combat zones. As federal forces respond to multiple fronts and local authorities contend with fragmented security conditions, weakened governance could reduce the state’s ability to contain violence, enforce law and order, and sustain reliable access to essential services. This could increase exposure to armed checkpoints, arbitrary detention, mobility restrictions, localized unrest, opportunistic crime, and kidnap-for-ransom risks in remote or poorly secured areas. Humanitarian and commercial operations could also face more complex duty-of-care requirements, constrained staff movement, supply-chain disruption, reduced medical access, and increasingly difficult relocation and evacuation planning, particularly if access becomes politicized or conflict actors restrict movement.
The key indicator is whether clashes remain geographically contained or begin interacting with Ethiopia’s wider political and security fractures. Additional force mobilization, expanding areas of confrontation, new alliances between armed actors, telecommunications or movement restrictions, and greater involvement by regional actors would indicate a shift toward broader deterioration. Renewed fighting in Tigray should therefore be viewed not simply as a breach of a fragile peace agreement, but as a potential catalyst for wider security, governance, and humanitarian pressures across Ethiopia.
AMERICAS
Travel Risks of Large-Scale Power Blackouts
Recent large-scale power outages across parts of the Americas have highlighted the far-reaching consequences of electricity disruptions on transportation, communications, healthcare, and public services. While blackouts are often associated with severe weather or infrastructure failures, their impacts can extend well beyond the immediate outage area, affecting travelers, businesses, and critical services. As reliance on digital technology continues to grow, prolonged power disruptions are creating increasingly complex operational challenges for both travelers and organizations.
Prolonged outages in Cuba offer a recent example, while infrastructure constraints and severe weather contribute to grid vulnerability elsewhere across Latin America, the Caribbean, and parts of North America. While most outages are resolved relatively quickly, prolonged disruptions can create significant vulnerabilities for travelers.
Travelers are increasingly reliant on electricity, often without realizing it. Smartphones provide navigation, translation, ride-hailing services, boarding passes, hotel reservations, emergency alerts, and communication with friends, family, and employers. Hotels, airports, hospitals, and transportation providers all depend on consistent electrical service. When power fails, the effects can spread quickly and affect other parts of a trip.
Transportation is often among the first systems affected. Traffic lights may stop functioning, increasing congestion and accident risks, while metro networks and commuter rail services may suspend operations. Airport operations can continue through backup power systems, but flight delays and disruptions often occur as airlines, security checkpoints, baggage systems, and air traffic operations adapt. Travelers attempting to reach airports or hotels may encounter significant delays as transportation networks become strained.
Communications can deteriorate during extended outages. While cellular networks often maintain backup power, those systems are designed for limited-duration emergencies. As batteries deplete and networks become congested, travelers may lose access to calls, texts, and mobile data. For organizations monitoring personnel abroad, widespread communications failures can also make it difficult to distinguish between a traveler requiring assistance and one who is temporarily unreachable.
Financial access can become another vulnerability, particularly for travelers who rely almost exclusively on digital payments and carry little local currency. However, ATMs, card readers, and payment processing systems all rely on electrical power and communications infrastructure.
Security concerns can also increase during prolonged blackouts as darkened streets, parking areas, and transportation hubs create opportunities for petty crime. Police and emergency services may face increased demand during the outage, potentially delaying response times. Although most power outages do not lead to widespread criminal activity, darkness, reduced communications, and strained public services can increase risks for travelers unfamiliar with the area.
The effects of a blackout often extend beyond the outage area. A disruption at a major transportation hub, airport, or metropolitan area can impact travelers hundreds of miles away. Even travelers who are not directly affected may face schedule changes, transportation delays, and accommodation shortages.
For travelers and organizations, preparation can reduce these impacts. Organizations should maintain communication protocols, traveler-tracking capabilities, and contingency plans, while travelers should carry a portable battery pack, keep offline copies of travel documents and key contacts, maintain some local currency, conserve device batteries, and identify alternative transportation options.
Large-scale blackouts rarely dominate international headlines for long, but their operational effects can persist after power is restored. Recognizing how power failures cascade across transportation, communications, payments, healthcare, and security allows travelers and their organizations to prepare for the secondary impacts that often create the greatest disruption.
Asia Pacific (APAC)
Bangladesh’s Post-Uprising Stability Faces a Critical Test in December 2026
Political transitions often remain vulnerable long after periods of unrest have ended, particularly when underlying grievances and divisions remain unresolved. In Bangladesh, two years after the uprising that reshaped the country’s political landscape, authorities continue to navigate a fragile recovery while balancing competing visions for the country’s future.
While the current government has stabilized the security environment and consolidated its position, many of the grievances and political divisions that fueled previous unrest remain unresolved. Against this backdrop, former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, who was overthrown in the 2024 uprising, has stated she intends to return to Bangladesh in December 2026, representing a potentially significant flashpoint. Beyond the return of a former leader, the event could become a focal point around which political, legal, and societal tensions reconverge, increasing the risk of demonstrations, localized unrest, and security disruptions during an already sensitive period of political transition.
The significance of Hasina’s proposed return stems from her continued ability to mobilize support and shape Bangladesh’s political landscape despite her removal from power. She remains an influential and polarizing figure despite her conviction in absentia and the continued ban of her political party, the Awami League. Her recent announcement that she intends to return to Bangladesh in December 2026 has generated strong reactions from authorities and supporters. The central challenge for authorities is that Hasina remains both politically influential and deeply divisive. Despite her conviction and the continued restrictions placed on the Awami League, the party retains support networks across the country and continues to command loyalty among segments of the population. Recent efforts by authorities to marginalize the movement have not eliminated its influence. Instead, they have reinforced perceptions among supporters that the Awami League is being systematically excluded from Bangladesh’s political future.
President Mohammed Shahabuddin’s resignation in July 2026 removed one of the last senior figures associated with the former Awami League administration and Sheikh Hasina. While the presidency has limited executive authority, the resignation contributes to broader perceptions that Bangladesh continues to distance itself from the political order under Hasina. For supporters of the former government, developments like these may reinforce grievances over political exclusion, creating more opportunities for opposition groups to mobilize around perceived injustices.
Several scenarios surrounding Hasina’s proposed return could generate instability. If she returns and is detained, supporters may mobilize in protest, potentially resulting in demonstrations and civil unrest. If authorities prevent her return, the move could further reinforce claims of political exclusion and trigger similar demonstrations. Even if authorities allow her to return under tightly controlled conditions, her presence inside Bangladesh could energize supporters and encourage renewed political activism. In each scenario, the primary risk is not necessarily a return to the nationwide unrest of 2024, but a sustained period of political tension marked by recurring demonstrations, localized violence, and heightened security measures.
While Bangladesh is unlikely to see a near-term return to the widespread upheaval of 2024, the political environment remains brittle. The significance of Sheikh Hasina’s proposed return lies less in the individual event itself than in its potential to unite a range of unresolved political grievances and competing visions for Bangladesh’s future. As a result, the period leading into December is likely to represent the country’s most politically sensitive period since the transition of power, with the potential for security and operational disruptions even if large-scale unrest does not materialize.
Europe & Commonwealth of Independent States (ECIS)
Ceuta Migrant Crisis Sparks Division Within the European Union
Migration pressures have remained a persistent challenge across Europe in recent years, periodically testing the balance between freedom of movement, border security, and humanitarian obligations. Large-scale migration events have repeatedly sparked political debate among European governments, exposing differing views on border management, asylum policy, and the responsibilities of member states in responding to new arrivals.
The European Schengen Area, long regarded as one of the world’s most significant achievements in facilitating freedom of movement, faces renewed pressure as European governments debate how to respond to rising migration flows and shifting geopolitical tensions. For travelers, these developments could mean more frequent identity checks, temporary border controls, longer transit times, and heightened security measures across parts of Europe in the coming months. While the Schengen framework generally allows individuals to move between participating countries without routine passport inspections, recent events have demonstrated that member states may reintroduce temporary border controls when governments believe security, migration, or public order concerns warrant additional oversight.
Migration policy discussions intensified following a large-scale movement of migrants into the Spanish enclave of Ceuta from neighboring Morocco in late July. The sudden influx overwhelmed local authorities and reignited long-standing debates within the European Union regarding border management, asylum procedures, burden-sharing arrangements, and the balance between humanitarian obligations and security concerns. Political leaders across Europe have since renewed efforts to review migration frameworks and determine how member states should collectively respond to future migration surges. The debate has exposed differing views among European governments, with some advocating stricter external border controls and accelerated deportation procedures, while others argue for broader legal pathways for migration and stronger humanitarian protections.
The political disagreement has also affected relations between Spain and Italy. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has criticized Spanish migration policies, arguing that measures perceived as encouraging regularization or residency opportunities may create additional incentives for irregular migration. In response to broader migration concerns, Italy has implemented enhanced checks on travelers arriving from Spain, illustrating how migration issues can influence movement within Europe even when there is little evidence of direct onward migration between the two countries. While these measures do not suspend the Schengen system, they highlight individual countries’ ability to temporarily increase border scrutiny when national interests are perceived to be at stake.
Beyond migration itself, the situation has become intertwined with broader geopolitical rivalries in the Mediterranean region. Spain maintains important energy and economic ties with Algeria, while Morocco remains a key security and migration partner for Europe and the United States. Some political observers and regional leaders have suggested that migration pressures are increasingly being leveraged within wider diplomatic disputes, transforming migration management from a purely humanitarian and border-security issue into a strategic political tool. The rapid spread of misinformation on social media has further complicated the situation. False claims that migrants could easily enter mainland Europe through Ceuta reportedly contributed to large-scale movements toward the enclave, showing how online narratives can quickly shape migration trends and create operational challenges for authorities.
In response, Spanish officials have announced additional measures to strengthen border security infrastructure around Ceuta and improve the government’s ability to manage future migration surges. Similar discussions are underway elsewhere in Europe as governments assess vulnerabilities along external borders and consider whether they need additional resources for migration enforcement. These debates come as Europe navigates economic uncertainty, ongoing security concerns related to Russia’s activities, strained trade relations with some international partners, and continued competition with China in key sectors.
Travelers should expect passport or identity checks when crossing some internal European borders, even on routes that have traditionally allowed seamless movement. While traveling between Spain, Italy, France, Germany, Austria, and other countries that have periodically implemented temporary border controls, visitors should carry passports and supporting travel documents. Additional screening at airports, train stations, ferry terminals, and major road crossings may increase journey times, particularly during periods of heightened migration activity or major political developments. Travelers should also monitor local news and transportation advisories for updates on demonstrations related to migration policy, as protests can disrupt transportation networks and city centers with little warning. While Europe remains a generally safe destination for international visitors, the evolving migration debate and associated political tensions could increase security visibility and make the cross-border environment less predictable through the remainder of 2026.
Middle East & North Africa (MENA)
Beyond Physical Security: Understanding Sensitive Topic Risks in MENA
Recent geopolitical tensions, regional conflicts, and the rapid growth of social media have increased scrutiny of public expression across parts of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). As governments and societies navigate increasingly polarized issues, travelers may face legal, cultural, and reputational challenges that are not always captured in traditional travel risk assessments.
Expression-related risks are often overlooked in Middle East and North Africa (MENA) travel risk assessments, despite their potential to create administrative, reputational, and operational challenges for travelers. While traditional assessments typically prioritize physical security threats, civil unrest, and geopolitical developments, traveler vulnerabilities can also arise from expression-related issues, including public commentary, social media activity, and the sharing of sensitive content. Cultural expectations, local laws, and inconsistent enforcement can present risks, particularly for visitors who may be unaware they have crossed a social or legal boundary.
Approaches to freedom of expression, media regulation, religious discourse, and political criticism vary considerably across MENA. In parts of the region, expression-related restrictions can extend to criticism of governments, commentary on regional conflicts, social media activity, political activism, and the filming or sharing of sensitive content. This creates additional considerations for travelers operating in an environment where enforcement can be inconsistent and difficult to predict.
Recent regional conflicts and heightened political polarization have contributed to a more sensitive discourse environment, expanding the range of issues that may attract official scrutiny and complicating the boundaries of acceptable public discussion. Amnesty International (2026) reported that more than 1,000 people across the Gulf states were allegedly arrested in a crackdown linked to discussing, filming, sharing, or commenting on the Iran-U.S. conflict online. Foreign nationals were reportedly among those detained, with some facing significant administrative consequences, illustrating the potential legal and operational consequences for travelers.
Social media adds another layer of complexity by blurring the distinction between online and offline behavior. Public posts, shared content, and political commentary often remain accessible across jurisdictions, creating risks that extend beyond statements made while traveling. Travelers may face scrutiny not only for remarks made during their visit but also for their existing digital footprint and online activity elsewhere. These considerations highlight the importance of incorporating digital awareness into travel risk planning. Understanding the visibility of publicly available content, local approaches to online monitoring, and country-specific restrictions on social media activity can help reduce unnecessary exposure. Travelers should exercise caution when filming, sharing, or commenting on political, religious, or culturally sensitive issues. Past online activity may remain relevant when entering another jurisdiction, creating exposure beyond a traveler’s in-country conduct.
In some destinations, restrictions are primarily codified in law, while in others the greater concern stems from social expectations, cultural sensitivities, and potential community reactions. This creates a complex operating environment for organizations whose personnel travel regularly across multiple jurisdictions within the region. Destination-specific briefings that address local laws, cultural expectations, and digital conduct can help travelers make informed decisions and operate safely and respectfully. Consequences can range from strained business relationships, reputational damage, restricted access to venues or events, and unwanted confrontations through to questioning by authorities and administrative penalties in more serious cases. Discussions concerning religion, domestic politics, regional conflicts, or other contentious social issues can be particularly sensitive in business meetings, public settings, and online forums. Even well-intentioned comments may be interpreted differently than intended, especially during periods of heightened regional tension.
As geopolitical tensions continue to shape the regional environment, travelers are increasingly exposed to risks associated not only with where they go, but also with what they say, share, film, and discuss. Expression-related restrictions, social media activity, and varying cultural sensitivities can all influence a traveler’s experience and, in some cases, create legal, reputational, or operational challenges. These considerations may become increasingly relevant as geopolitical polarization, digital monitoring, social media use, and the permanence of online content continue to converge across the region. For organizations, effective risk mitigation requires incorporating these factors into destination-specific travel risk assessments, pre-travel briefings, and traveler awareness programs.
By communicating local expectations, digital conduct considerations, and country-specific sensitivities, organizations can better support informed decision-making and help personnel operate safely, respectfully, and effectively across MENA, particularly during periods of heightened geopolitical tension or conflict. Ultimately, the increasing relevance of expression-related risks reflects a broader shift in the travel risk landscape, requiring organizations to consider legal, cultural, and digital exposure alongside traditional physical security threats.
About On Call International:
When traveling, every problem is unique–a medical crisis, a political threat, even a common accident such as a missed flight. But every solution starts with customized care that ensures travelers are safe and protected. That’s why for over 25 years, On Call International has provided fully-customized travel risk management and emergency assistance services protecting millions of travelers, their families, and their organizations. Visit www.oncallinternational.com and follow us on LinkedIn to learn more.
