Monthly Risk Spotlight: November 2025

AMERICAS

Rising Risk: Organized Crime Surges in Peru, Ecuador, and Chile
The assassination of Indonesian diplomat, Zetro Leonardo Purba, in Lima, Peru, in September 2025 marked a turning point in how organized crime is perceived across South America’s Pacific states.

Once considered among the region’s most stable nations, Chile, Ecuador, and Peru are experiencing a rise in violent criminal activity, challenging law enforcement and public confidence. Peruvian authorities classified the diplomat’s killing as a contract hit, a tactic once rare, but now part of a growing pattern of targeted violence, illustrating how organized criminal networks are embedding themselves into societies long thought resilient.

In Peru, homicide and extortion rates have surged to record levels, with more than 6,000 people killed between January and mid-August 2025 alone, the fastest rate in nearly a decade. The Purba case, in which the diplomat was shot outside his residence, is being treated as a “qualified homicide,” a term used in Peru to describe crimes involving premeditation and logistical coordination. While politically motivated killings remain uncommon, the targeting of a foreign official demonstrates how far-reaching and unpredictable criminal dynamics have become, particularly in urban centers where the state’s presence is increasingly contested.

Ecuador has officially described the situation as an ‘internal armed conflict,’ reflecting the seriousness of escalating violence. At least 22 domestic gangs have been formally labelled internal enemies of the state. Efforts to dismantle high-profile networks, such as the arrests of Los Tiguerones’ leader William Alcivar Bautista and Los Choneros’ boss, José Adolfo Macías, have sparked destabilizing power struggles. Guayaquil has become the epicenter of this conflict, with splinter groups engaged in lethal turf wars, contract killings, and attacks on security services.

Chile has also experienced a notable shift. Long seen as a regional benchmark for political and economic stability, the country is now contending with the spread of transnational criminal networks, including Venezuela’s Tren de Aragua (TDA), Mexico’s Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG), and China’s Fujian Gang. In 2024, the country recorded 868 kidnappings, nearly 40% linked to organized crime, while drug seizures and human trafficking investigations point to expanding international operations. A recent case in the capital, Santiago, saw the dismantling of a Chinese-run trafficking ring, with links spanning across continents. Meanwhile, ports like Valparaíso and key free trade zones are being exploited by cartels for illicit logistics, weakening Chile’s traditionally strong institutional image.

Rising criminal activity across Chile, Ecuador, and Peru is reshaping regional security dynamics and creating new risks for travelers, diplomatic staff, NGOs, and commercial operations. In Peru, the emergence of targeted killings underscores the need for stronger protective measures, particularly for executives and official personnel. Ecuador’s frequent curfews, spontaneous lockdowns, and violent clashes have created unpredictable operating environments, especially around major airports and transportation hubs. In Chile, the growing presence of organized crime in logistics zones and urban areas with weak enforcement further heightens exposure for foreign organizations. For companies in logistics, energy, or civic sectors, reassessing current security postures is critical–traditional low-risk areas now require enhanced partner vetting, improved situational awareness, adaptable contingency planning, and closer coordination between local and central security teams. The surge of organized crime across these nations signals more than a decline in public safety; it highlights a deeper erosion of state authority and governance. Without parallel investment in judicial reform, education, and economic opportunity, criminal systems may become entrenched in both local communities and national infrastructure.

Looking ahead, the outlook points to continued instability and expanding criminal influence–threatening not only local populations, but also foreign missions, logistics operations, and global supply chains tied to the Pacific Trade Corridor.

MIDDLE EAST & NORTH AFRICA (MENA)

Digitally Mobilized: The Rise of Gen Z Protest Movements in Morocco
In late September 2025, youth protests coordinated via social media platforms significantly disrupted urban transportation, commercial activities, and restricted movement throughout Morocco, resulting in a series of flash demonstrations. This emerging model of protest organization, otherwise known as the ‘Gen Z Protest Movement,’ has the potential to disrupt business continuity, operational planning, and travel logistics nationwide. For travelers and organizations, the speed and unpredictability of these protests pose challenges for journey management, workforce mobility, and crisis response planning.

Protests erupted after the deaths of eight pregnant women at a hospital in Agadir (Souss-Massa), drawing attention to concerns over Morocco’s strained healthcare system. Demonstrators called for better medical services, expanded access to education, and stronger anti-corruption measures. Critics have also questioned the government’s spending priorities ahead of major international sporting events, including the 2030 FIFA World Cup and the Africa Cup of Nations, arguing that resources were being directed toward prestige projects rather than essential public services.

Protests occurred almost daily for two weeks in cities such as Casablanca (Casablanca-Settat), Agadir, Tangier (Tanger-Tetouan-Al Hoceima), and Rabat (Rabat-Salé-Kénitra), sometimes turning violent with property damage, fires, and fatalities. Authorities detained around 1,400 people, with over 2,400 possibly facing prosecution. Protests subsided in October following the king’s speech in support of reforms and a $15 billion USD (approximately 140 billion MAD) budget proposal for health and education improvements. However, certain groups continued to demand the release of detained individuals.

. The primary threat the Gen Z protests in Morocco pose to travelers is the risk of being inadvertently caught in violent clashes or experiencing significant travel disruptions. Individuals near violent protests are at increased risk of physical injury, exposure to forceful measures by law enforcement, or potential arrest. Urban unrest in larger cities often results in street closures, heavy traffic, and delays, which can restrict movement to and from airports and lodging accommodations. Such events may also trigger localized curfews, shelter-in-place directives, or police checkpoints, potentially disrupting emergency services.

Social media’s decentralized and digitally coordinated nature makes it increasingly difficult to predict and manage, further heightening the risk of sudden unrest, transportation interruptions, and operational challenges for companies and institutions in affected areas. Organizations can mitigate the impact of disruptions by gathering proactive intelligence, implementing comprehensive emergency plans and training, fostering strong community engagement, and utilizing clear communication methods. These measures can include social media monitoring, utilizing traveler tracking tools, establishing remote work arrangements in affected areas, and communicating through emergency check-in protocols at all stages of a response plan or incident. Furthermore, engaging key community stakeholders and facilitating open lines of communication to assess local concerns allows organizations to address potential challenges proactively.

In the short term, sporadic unrest remains likely, particularly if reforms stall or allegations of corruption deepen, as Gen Z activists continue to use social media networks to amplify grievances and pressure authorities. Organizations should expect intermittent demonstrations near government buildings, college campuses, and prominent public spaces as well as short-notice disruptions to transport and internet connectivity. Morocco has implemented laws and informal practices to censor political speech but has not completely prohibited certain social media platforms, unlike some other Arab countries. If protests were to grow less regulated, the government may consider banning social media platforms, which could result in additional public response. As protest methods evolve and adapt, it highlights the necessity for organizations to consistently refine and adjust their strategies to maintain business continuity.

ASIA PACIFIC (APAC)

Afghanistan-Pakistan Tensions: A Growing Regional Flashpoint
In October 2025, violence erupted along the historically volatile Afghanistan–Pakistan border, as military confrontations between Pakistani forces and the Taliban pushed tensions to their highest level in years. Deadly exchanges near key crossings resulted in dozens of casualties and renewed fears of a broader conflict. While both nations announced a temporary ceasefire, the fragile truce highlights the deep mutual distrust between the two countries and the unresolved security concerns that continue to impact the region. For travelers and organizations operating in South Asia, these developments reinforce the importance of heightened risk awareness and contingency planning.

In early October, fighting occurred along the Spin Boldak–Chaman corridor and other contested border areas. The clashes reportedly began when Pakistani forces launched strikes against what they described as terrorist hideouts inside Afghanistan, while Afghan officials accused Pakistan of striking civilian areas, including locations near the Afghan capital, Kabul. The violence followed a suicide bombing in Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) province, claimed by the Pakistani Taliban (TTP), which Islamabad alleges operates from Afghan territory.

Despite a 48-hour ceasefire brokered with the support of regional actors such as Qatar and Saudi Arabia, hostilities resumed almost immediately, with reports of renewed airstrikes and cross-border shelling. Compounding the crisis, Pakistan has accelerated its deportation of Afghan migrants, sending back over 1.4 million people under a phased plan. The move has further strained diplomatic ties and created significant humanitarian and logistical challenges along the frontier.

The implications of these developments are significant. First, Pakistan faces an elevated terrorism threat as militant groups, including the TTP and Islamic State (IS) affiliates, exploit the instability to stage attacks. The recent surge in suicide bombings and ambushes highlights the growing operational capability of these groups, which thrive in environments of weak border control and political discord. Second, the mass deportation of Afghan refugees could trigger civil unrest within Pakistan, particularly in border provinces such as KP, where communities maintain longstanding social and economic ties to Afghanistan. Protests and localized violence are plausible as deportees and their supporters resist enforcement measures. Lastly, the risk of further military escalation remains high. Both governments have hardened their rhetoric, and without a durable diplomatic solution, skirmishes could spiral into sustained conflict, drawing in regional actors and complicating humanitarian operations.

Looking ahead, the risk of renewed border violence, insurgent attacks, and humanitarian pressure is likely to persist. Pakistan’s Baluchistan and KP provinces remain high-risk zones due to active military operations and militant infiltration, while urban centers like Kabul and Islamabad are not immune to attacks. The ceasefire agreement remains tenuous and could collapse without warning, increasing the potential for sudden border closures, checkpoint disruptions, and mobility restrictions. For travelers and organizations operating in the region, proactive contingency planning and heightened situational awareness remain essential.

AFRICA

Unrest and Mourning: Odinga’s Death Sparks Nationwide Tensions in Kenya
The death of former Prime Minister and long-time opposition figure Raila Odinga on October 15 has reignited political divisions and underscored Kenya’s struggle to balance public sentiment with state control, a dynamic with far-reaching implications for regional stability and mobility.

Odinga’s passing triggered widespread mourning and unrest across Kenya, revealing both his enduring influence and the fragility of civic order. His passing removes a pivotal actor from Kenya’s opposition landscape and is likely to reshape the country’s political trajectory ahead of the 2027 general elections, where his leadership had long served as a moderating force.

Odinga, who died while receiving medical treatment in India, was among the most prominent figures in Kenya’s post-independence history. His family played a defining role in the nation’s liberation struggle, while his decades of political activity, spanning multiple coalitions, reform movements, and presidential bids, positioned him as both a unifier and a symbol of resistance. His father, Jaramogi Oginga Odinga, served as Kenya’s first vice president and one of its earliest opposition leaders, cementing the Odinga family’s political legacy.

In accordance with his wishes, Odinga’s burial was expedited. His body was returned to Kenya on October 16 and interred two days later, a timeline widely interpreted as an effort to prevent protracted political mobilization. Despite these efforts, President William Ruto declared seven days of national mourning, drawing thousands of people to cities nationwide, with spontaneous processions reflecting both grief and political sentiment.

Crowds overwhelmed security at Jomo Kenyatta International Airport (NBO) upon the arrival of Odinga’s remains, prompting scuffles and a 20 mile (30-kilometer) procession into central Nairobi. Later that day, a public viewing at a major stadium devolved into chaos when mourners clashed with police attempting to manage access. Security forces fired shots and tear gas to disperse crowds, triggering a stampede that left multiple people dead and more than 200 injured. Further clashes were reported in Kisumu and other western regions, underscoring the depth of Odinga’s grassroots support and the volatility surrounding his legacy.

Much of the disorder reflected rushed planning and spontaneous turnout, but it also reinforced a familiar pattern. Security services have long relied on forceful tactics to manage public gatherings, often escalating tensions instead of defusing them.  Security forces frequently employ crowd-control measures such as tear gas and non-lethal munitions, reflecting long-standing policing practices that can sometimes escalate tensions during large gatherings.

Odinga’s death leaves a political and emotional vacuum. His stature often bridged Kenya’s fragmented opposition and provided a sense of continuity within an increasingly polarized landscape. Without his influence, intra-party divisions could widen within the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) and the broader opposition bloc, potentially emboldening populist or ethnically driven movements. These shifts may redefine alliances and inject volatility into Kenya’s pre-election environment.

While immediate unrest has eased, the events surrounding Odinga’s death revealed how quickly civic emotion can translate into disorder in urban centers. The combination of institutional fragility, heavy-handed policing, and digitally driven mobilization ensures that future symbolic events, anniversaries, political commemorations, and opposition rallies will continue to pose a risk to public order. Rapidly forming crowds, unpredictable police responses, and communication blackouts all present challenges for mobility management and crisis coordination. These dynamics are likely to persist, keeping Kenya’s operational risk profile elevated despite its otherwise stable business and travel environment.

EUROPE AND THE COMMONWEALTH OF INDEPENDENT STATES (ECIS)

European Christmas Markets Pose Additional Risk Considerations for Travelers
As millions of travelers flock to Europe’s Christmas markets this holiday season, the festive atmosphere also brings additional safety and security considerations. Germany alone hosts over 120 Christmas markets from early November through December, while in countries such as Belarus, Russia, Serbia, and Ukraine, markets often extend into January. Large crowds, open layouts, and busy urban settings can increase exposure to risks such as petty theft, crowd-related incidents, and, on rare occasions, targeted attacks.

In recent years, Europe has experienced periods of heightened political and religious tension, some of which have coincided with security incidents during major public gatherings. Christmas markets, with their high concentration of people and cultural significance, have unfortunately been the focus of such incidents. The combination of symbolic importance and accessibility makes these markets a potential target for both petty crime and more serious security concerns. One of the most notable attacks occurred on December 19, 2016, when a stolen truck was driven into the Breitscheidplatz market in Berlin, resulting in 13 deaths and dozens of injuries. Despite increased security measures, another attack took place on December 20, 2024, in Magdeburg, Germany, where a vehicle was driven into a crowd, killing six and injuring over 300.

Tourism increases significantly during the holiday season, and travelers should maintain situational awareness at all times. It is essential to monitor one’s surroundings, especially vehicles parked nearby or individuals exhibiting erratic or abrupt behavior. Visitors should identify exit routes and remain vigilant for changes in crowd dynamics. If a crowd begins to feel overly dense or chaotic, it is advisable to leave the area promptly.  In addition to the risks of terrorism and crowd safety concerns, travelers should remain vigilant for petty crimes, such as pickpocketing and scams, which tend to increase in densely populated market areas. To minimize risk, travelers should secure their belongings, use anti-theft bags or money belts, and consolidate shopping bags to avoid distraction. Maintaining awareness of one’s surroundings is the most effective way to prevent theft.

Ongoing geopolitical tensions continue to shape Europe’s security environment. Germany and other European nations continue to adapt security measures in response to broader demographic and geopolitical developments, including increased CCTV surveillance, visible police and military presence, physical barriers, and controlled entry points with bag checks. With heightened security measures in place and large public gatherings expected, travelers should follow local directives, plan ahead, and allow for extra time to get from Point A to Point B. Preparation and awareness remain key to enjoying Europe’s Christmas markets safely this holiday season.

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