Monthly Risk Spotlight: July 2025

AMERICAS

From Beaches to Highlands: Dengue Crisis Spreads Across Latin America
As Latin America enters its tropical season, a surge in dengue fever threatens to evolve into a regional health crisis. The 2025 outbreak, driven by climate shifts, urban overcrowding, and strained infrastructure. The spread of dengue beyond traditional hotspots is reshaping mobility and medical preparedness across the region.

Hospitals across Latin America are dealing with a second consecutive year of overwhelming case surges. Emergency rooms and intensive care units are over-capacity. In Brazil alone, nearly 2.8 million cases have been reported in 2025. Even major urban hospitals have been forced to prioritize dengue patients, turning away non-critical patients. The situation is similar in Colombia, Mexico, and Peru, where shortages of beds, IV fluids, and diagnostic kits are widespread. In rural areas, the crisis is more acute. Clinics may lack the resources to manage severe cases, resulting in preventable deaths and diverting critical resources from other public health needs, further burdening vulnerable populations.

Dengue is now spreading into areas once considered too cool, dry, or low-risk for transmission—including northern Mexico near the U.S. border, southern Brazil, Uruguay, and the Andean highlands, where cities such as Quito and Cusco are experiencing an increase in cases. This expansion is driven by a combination of climate change, rapid urbanization, and increased human mobility. The El Niño weather pattern has brought rising temperatures and erratic rainfall, creating ideal breeding conditions for mosquitoes at higher altitudes and latitudes. Rapid urban growth without sufficient sanitation or waste management has produced mosquito-friendly environments in cities such as Bogotá and Rio Grande do Sul. Meanwhile, population movement has introduced the virus into remote areas like the Amazon Basin, where immunity levels are low and access to healthcare is limited.

In response, the CDC has issued travel advisories for more than 20 countries in the Americas—including destinations not typically linked to dengue outbreaks, such as Uruguay, Argentina, Mexico, and Chile. Travelers in rural or remote areas may face delays in receiving adequate care. Unlike malaria, dengue has no specific antiviral treatment or widely available vaccine for travelers; severe cases may require hospitalization and supportive care.

Travelers should monitor local news and official guidance when visiting at-risk destinations. Disruptions are likely to continue through November, when mosquito-friendly weather patterns begin to decline. However, sporadic outbreaks may persist, particularly in densely populated urban centers.

 MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA (MENA)

Iran’s IAEA Withdrawal: Escalation Risks Beyond Its Borders
Iran’s suspension of cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is contributing to heightened regional tensions, increasing the risk of renewed conflict, diplomatic polarization, and disruption to travel and business operations across the Middle East. Fundamentally, the conflict reflects a deep-seated ideological divide, with Iran and Israel viewing each other as existential threats. This impasse not only threatens geopolitical stability but also poses risks to travel security.

On June 25, Iran’s parliament approved legislation to halt collaboration with the IAEA, reaffirming its civilian nuclear goals. The move followed major Israeli and United States (U.S.) strikes on Iranian nuclear sites. A U.S.-Qatar-brokered ceasefire ended 12 days of fighting.

Israel’s recent military operations and Iran’s backing of regional proxies reflect not only immediate retaliation but also entrenched strategic postures shaped by mutual distrust and perceived existential threats. These dynamics heighten the risk of renewed conflict, potentially destabilizing airspace and border regions. Despite the current ceasefire, tensions remain high, with Iranian officials accusing Israel of preparing to breach the agreement and threatening a response. Israel’s actions suggest long-term planning, bolstered by consistent U.S. support, while Iran may retaliate through allied groups in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, or Yemen, further exacerbating regional instability.

Should hostilities resume, the broader Iran-Israel conflict could trigger anti-Western sentiment and protest activity in countries aligned with Iran, particularly where ideological or sectarian ties are strong. While direct travel to Iran remains limited, unrest could surface in countries such as Bahrain, Iraq, Lebanon, and Türkiye, heightening risks for Western travelers.

Strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities have stalled diplomacy. Tehran has delayed resuming talks with the U.S., citing deepening mistrust. A planned sixth round of negotiations is now in doubt. This breakdown risks further polarizing the region—drawing Iran closer to China and Russia, while the U.S. and its allies strengthen ties with Israel and Gulf states. Increased military activity near strategic transit points, such as the Strait of Hormuz, and heightened sensitivity toward Western presence near critical infrastructure are likely to persist. Tensions may also restrict airspace and increase military activity near key transit routes such as the Strait of Hormuz.

Absent a structural shift in regional dynamics, volatility in the Middle East is likely to persist. Iran’s defiance of IAEA oversight is not just technical non-compliance; it represents a flashpoint in a broader geopolitical contest. For security and travel stakeholders, real-time risk monitoring, proactive diplomatic engagement, and contingency planning will remain essential as alliances shift and the threat of renewed conflict endures.

ASIA-PACIFIC (APAC)

Border Confrontation Renews Diplomatic Tensions
A resurgence in the long-standing border dispute between Thailand and Cambodia has reignited military tensions, causing significant disruptions in the region. In May 2025, a Cambodian soldier was killed during a border clash with Thai forces near the contested Emerald Triangle border area. The incident sparked a series of retaliatory actions and renewed diplomatic unease between the two nations.

Following the fatal clash, both governments increased military deployments at various locations along their shared border. Thailand shut the Chong Sai Taku crossing in Buriram Province, while Cambodia closed two checkpoints in Oddar Meanchey Province. Operating hours at remaining crossings were sharply reduced. Flight cancellations between the two countries compounded the disruption, forcing many travelers to revise their itineraries.

This conflict has also deepened the political instability between Thailand and Cambodia. Shortly after the armed confrontation, Thailand’s prime minister, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, spoke with a senior Cambodian government official over the phone and offered concessions and sympathies to Cambodia. Subsequently, audio from this call was leaked to local media, resulting in a large political scandal for Paetongtarn Shinawatra. The leaked phone call emboldened nationalist elements of Thai society, causing them to protest nationwide against Shinawatra’s government. The largest demonstrations occurred in Bangkok, causing major traffic disruptions in the city center. Adding to the escalating political situation, in early July 2025, Thailand’s constitutional court suspended Paetongtarn Shinawatra as the country’s prime minister. Thailand’s domestic political crisis adds a new layer of complexity to the country’s recent tensions with Cambodia. The political turmoil is sending an unclear message to Cambodia on how Thailand will handle the ongoing situation and border dispute, risking a further deterioration in diplomatic relations.

The economic consequences of the conflict continue to mount for both countries. Cross-border trade has slowed, and the tourism sector—a key industry in both countries—has suffered steep losses. Despite expectations that diplomacy will eventually ease tensions, domestic instability in Thailand clouds the timeline for a resolution. Until then, diplomatic friction and sporadic unrest are likely to continue.

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

Kenyan Unrest Revamps Around Anniversary of 2024 Protests
On June 7, prominent Kenyan blogger Albert Ojwang died in police custody after being transferred to a Nairobi police station following his arrest the previous day. He had been charged with spreading false information about government officials on social media. His detention sparked immediate concern due to the unusual decision to move him from his home region in western Kenya to the capital. Police claims that Ojwang died from an accidental or self-inflicted head injury were widely met with skepticism.

Public outrage over Ojwang’s death reignited memories of the Kenya Finance Bill Protests of 2024, and led to mass demonstrations starting June 9. On June 12, demonstrations escalated in size and intensity in Nairobi, with protesters clashing with security services and setting multiple vehicles ablaze. Tear gas and rubber bullets were deployed to disperse crowds near government installations.

Tensions surged again on June 17 when police were photographed shooting Boniface Kariuki, an unarmed street vendor, in the head at close range during an anti-police brutality protest. During this same protest, police failed to intervene as protesters came under violent attack by several hundred motorbike riders alleged to be affiliated with anti-protest groups. On June 23, three police officers and three civilians were charged with Ojwang’s murder as law enforcement abandoned all claims of accidental death. On June 25 a massive economic shutdown protest proceeded as scheduled. At least 16 people were confirmed dead and approximately 400 injured following clashes with the police during a protest marking the anniversary of the 2024 storming of the parliament, which had left over 60 people dead.

After several days of relative calm, Boniface Kariuki was confirmed dead on June 30. He had been on life support since June 17, which was withdrawn after doctors confirmed he was brain-dead due to bullet fragments that remained in his brain despite multiple surgeries. Public outrage was further ignited over reports of his family appealing for charitable assistance after not receiving any help from the government.

Kenyan police have a long record of using excessive force, especially during political unrest. Civil society groups frequently accuse them of acting with impunity. During the 2024 protests alone, more than 60 demonstrators were killed by security forces. With tensions around Ojwang’s death still high, further protests are likely in the near term. A heightened security presence is expected to continue in Nairobi and other major cities while the unrest persists.

EUROPE AND THE COMMONWEALTH OF INDEPENDENT STATES (ECIS)

Middle East Conflicts Fuel Protests Across Europe
Public protests have intensified across the European Union (EU) and the broader region due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and the perceived inaction from the West. The resurgence and escalation of the Israeli-Gaza conflict in October 2023 and the more recent open conflict between Israel and Iran in June 2025 sparked regionwide protests. What began as peaceful demonstrations in support of Palestinian civilians and calls for ceasefires has evolved into a widespread and increasingly volatile protest movement.

Europe has a long and deeply rooted tradition of civic activism, with public protests playing a central role in shaping political and social change. From labor strikes during the Industrial Revolution to the civil rights movements and anti-war demonstrations, public mobilization has historically served as a powerful tool for expressing dissent. Today’s protests reflect this legacy. The EU’s involvement, or perceived lack thereof, in international conflicts has become a growing source of public discontent. Many citizens are calling for a more independent and humanitarian-focused foreign policy, one that prioritizes ethical responsibility over strategic alignment with U.S. interests.

The 2025 NATO summit further highlighted these tensions. Member states agreed to increase defense spending to 5% of gross domestic product, up from the previous 2%, with the stated goal of strengthening industrial defense production and reaffirming support for Ukraine. Critics argue that this move signals a shift toward militarization at the expense of diplomacy and humanitarian engagement. Protesters regionwide have voiced concern that such decisions deepen involvement in foreign conflicts without addressing the root causes or the humanitarian crises they generate. Pro-Palestinian demonstrations have drawn hundreds of thousands of participants to major cities and university towns across the region, highlighting the movement’s regional scope and sustained momentum.

One of the most controversial developments has been the United Kingdom’s (UK) recent classification of the activist group, Palestine Action, as a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO). Known for targeting defense contractors linked to Israel, the group’s designation means support or affiliation could carry up to 14 years in prison. For travelers, this shift presents new legal risks, where association with banned groups, intentional or otherwise, could result in prosecution. It also raises broader concerns about the criminalization of dissent in liberal democracies.

Travelers and organizations operating in Europe should be prepared for sudden protest activity, even in traditionally low-risk cities, as protests can materialize with little notice and may quickly escalate.  Avoiding large gatherings, monitoring local news, and following guidance from local authorities remain essential safety practices in this increasingly polarized environment.

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