AMERICAS
Latin American Regional Relations Round-Up
With political tensions in Venezuela escalating as citizens continue to protest against the results of what has been deemed to be an unfair election, it is valuable to take a macro regional view at the elections that have recently occurred across Latin America and how the political landscape, and in turn the security landscape, has shifted for the region. There have been five elections (El Salvador, Panama, Dominican Republic, Mexico, Venezuela) in Latin America as of August 2024, with three more polls (Brazil, Chile, Uruguay) scheduled before the end of the year.
In El Salvador, the most popular leader in the Americas, Nayib Bukele, ran for reelection for another five-year term. Interestingly, Bukele was not constitutionally allowed to run, but with strong control over the Salvadoran Supreme Court, he was able to change the rules, which has paved the way for him to run for another term. Thus, we see a dichotomy between a heavily supported and popular leader, and also a leader that has not shied away from challenging the democratic process.
In Panama, deep political divisions resulted in no political party getting over 35% of the vote, leading to the rise of Jose Raul Mulino as a stand-in candidate for former president Ricardo Martinelli, who was disqualified after being convicted of money laundering. With a divided and unpopular legislature, the focus is on Mulino and how he will handle major immigration issues in Panama, while also maintaining the stability and security of the country to support his goals of steady and continual economic growth.
The election in the Dominican Republic has been the most stable by far in the region. The incumbent President Luis Abinader has guided the Dominican Republic through a period of economic growth and has navigated complicated relations with its neighbor, Haiti, while in office. Unsurprisingly, Abinader ran for reelection and won comfortably with over 60% of the vote.
The elections in Mexico were the largest elections in Mexican history, with every political seat in the legislative and executive branch up for election. Claudia Sheinbaum, who was President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador’s chosen successor, won the election by a landslide, becoming Mexico’s first female president. With congressional majorities in all branches of government, there is high expectation that President Sheinbaum will tackle major issues affecting Mexico, including continued cartel violence and the Mexico-United States (U.S.) relationship.
Lastly is Venezuela, where President Nicolas Maduro reneged on his promise to run free and fair elections. Voters overwhelmingly supported Edmundo Gonzales Urrutia for president in the July 28 election, but the Maduro controlled Electoral Commission declared Maduro as the victor and has refused to release the election results. Although most elections in the Americas have led to some sort of status-quo, the election in Venezuela has been the most divisive so far. Venezuela’s neighbors have protested the handling of the election and regional organizations such as the Organization of American States (OAS) have sided with the opposition and called for electoral transparency. Meanwhile, thousands of protesting citizens have been detained and international support for Venezuela has continued to dwindle.
Democracy and elections are becoming more entrenched and important in the continent, even in the face of autocratic trends most prominently displayed in El Salvador and Venezuela. For leaders in the Americas, having the support of the people and running free and fair elections is becoming more of the norm and points to maturing democracies. As the year continues and major elections take place in Brazil, Chile, Uruguay and in the U.S., the regional expectation for nations holding elections is an orderly, free, and fair process with a peaceful transfer of power between rival political groups. When and if these conditions are not met, unrest and instability is likely to follow.
MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA (MENA)
Targeted Attack Increases Terrorism Risk in Oman
On July 16, a terrorist incident occurred in Oman when gunman attacked the Imam Ali Mosque in the capital Muscat. The attack was one of the deadliest to occur in Oman in recent history, as six people were killed and 28 were wounded. Notably, the Imam Ali Mosque is a mosque whose patrons are believers of the Shia branch of Islam. The shooting took place during Muharram, an important holy month for Shia Muslims. The Islamic State (IS) subsequently claimed responsibility for the attack. Authorities have stated that the attack was likely an isolated incident carried out by attackers inspired by IS, rather than direct affiliates of the group. Notably, IS and its followers are a group that primarily adheres to the Sunni branch of Islam. Conflict between Sunni and Shia Muslims is ongoing and attacks against either group is relatively common across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. However, violent acts of terrorism in Oman are extremely rare. Large scale terrorist attacks have not occurred in Oman for several years, as the country is generally considered to be low risk for terrorist attacks and violent crime. However, this most recent event signifies a shift in the global reach of international terrorist groups to carry out attacks in areas previously regarded as lower risk for terrorism.
Prior to this attack, Oman was widely considered to be one of the safest destinations in the MENA region. Oman’s success in preventing the spread of terrorism into the country could be attributed to its proactive policy of prohibiting Omani citizens from traveling to conflict zones affected by the jihadist movements, such as Yemen or Iraq. Furthermore, Oman’s foreign policy of avoiding direct military involvement in regional conflicts has helped prevent the radicalization of citizens. However, this most recent attack may suggest that certain parts of the population are more susceptible to being radicalized by terrorist groups than previously believed. Moreover, a plurality of government domestic security agencies across the world have stated there is a heightened threat of terrorism globally.
The conflict in Gaza has amplified grievances against western countries and Israel. Furthermore, the conflict has intensified the Sunni-Shia conflict, as many Sunni majority countries have officially recognized the legitimacy of the state of Israel. The combined influences of the conflict in Gaza and the persistent conflict between Sunni and Shia Muslims increases the likelihood of individuals becoming radicalized by such terrorist organizations. This heightened security environment increases the risk of terrorism in countries where previously the threat of terrorism was considered low, including in nations like Oman.
Individuals who are inspired by terrorist groups can carry out attacks with little to no warning. Authorities in Oman have stated that the individuals responsible for the Imam Ali Mosque were not previously known to authorities. As the security environment remains heightened in the Middle East, there will continue to be a heightened risk of terrorism within the region and throughout the world.
ASIA-PACIFIC (APAC)
What to Expect Following Bangladesh’s Prime Minister Resignation
The recent political upheaval in Bangladesh, marked by the resignation of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, is poised to have significant implications for regional geopolitics and international relations. Hasina’s departure after 15 years of rule creates a vacuum that could alter alliances and power dynamics in South Asia and beyond.
Under Hasina’s leadership, Bangladesh enjoyed a period of economic growth and stability, fostering strong ties with neighboring India. India, which shares deep historical, cultural, and economic bonds with Bangladesh, viewed Hasina’s government as a crucial ally. Bangladesh is India’s largest trade partner in South Asia, with bilateral trade reaching nearly $16 billion USD. Hasina’s administration clamped down on anti-India insurgents, maintained a secular stance in a predominantly Muslim country, and kept the military at bay, ensuring a stable environment conducive to mutual cooperation on multiple fronts, including defense, energy, and business.
The resignation of Hasina introduces uncertainty and potential realignment in the region. Analysts suggest that a new government in Bangladesh could pivot towards China, which has already invested heavily in the country. This shift could challenge India’s influence and complicate its strategic position, particularly as it contends with ongoing border disputes with China and Pakistan. The possibility of a pro-China government in Dhaka might embolden Beijing’s assertiveness in South Asia, further encircling India with Chinese allies.
Furthermore, the departure of Hasina raises concerns about the internal stability of Bangladesh. The protests that led to her resignation began with demands for the abolition of a controversial quota system for government jobs but escalated into broader anti-government demonstrations. These protests, which resulted in significant violence and loss of life, highlighted underlying tensions and discontent within the country. The interim government, headed by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, faces the daunting task of steering the nation through this period of turmoil towards credible elections and a stable political future.
The instability in Bangladesh could have far-reaching implications for the region. India’s immediate concern is the potential rise of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), which has historical ties with Pakistan and has supported insurgent groups in India’s northeastern states. Such a development could reignite security concerns and destabilize the already fragile peace in the region.
Additionally, the economic ties between India and Bangladesh could suffer. The two countries have been working on enhancing trade relations, including discussions on a potential Free Trade Agreement (FTA) that could significantly boost bilateral trade. The political uncertainty may stall these efforts, impacting businesses and economic growth on both sides. The disruption in infrastructure projects and connectivity initiatives, like the cross-border rail links, could also affect India’s strategic access to its northeastern states.
Beyond South Asia, the international community will be closely monitoring the situation in Bangladesh. Western nations, which have previously criticized Hasina’s government for human rights violations and lack of press freedom, may see this as an opportunity to push for democratic reforms. However, the transition period could also witness increased violence and instability, particularly against minority communities and political opponents.
The resignation of Sheikh Hasina marks a critical juncture for Bangladesh and the broader region. The geopolitical landscape of South Asia is likely to be reshaped as countries recalibrate their strategies in response to the evolving dynamics in Dhaka. The outcome of this transition will not only determine the future of Bangladesh but also influence regional stability and international relations in the coming years.
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
Nigerian Protests Mirror Those in Kenya
Anti-government protests began in mid-June in Kenya aiming to combat unpopular finance reforms. The protests were primarily youth-driven and decentralized with no particular leadership behind them. The protests were noted for becoming highly violent, as security forces fired live ammunition, rubber bullets, and tear gas on protesters; at least 39 people have been killed and several others injured. Demonstrators also engaged in the storming of the parliament building and while they were successful in getting into the building, legislators had managed to fully withdraw. The success of the demonstration influenced the populace in Nigeria, who are angered and frustrated by unpopular government reforms impacting their economy. By late July, protesters in Nigeria began mobilizing online after being inspired by the anti-government protests in Kenya and cited the successes as motivation.
On July 31, the Nigerian government stated they were deploying security forces to major urban centers nationwide. Officials began appealing for protesters to join them in dialogue before protests began on August 1. Multiple groups have called for protests to be held with demands including but not limited to restoring electrical and petrol subsidies, remedies for the increased costs of living, and government action against armed gangs. Armed police have taken positions on major roads in the capital of Abuja, Lagos (Lagos state), and Kano (Kano state) setting up security checkpoints. Police have conducted searches of vehicles ahead of protests and occupied sites protesters planned to use ahead of their arrival. Officials expressed concerns that bad-faith actors could infiltrate the protests and cause violent clashes to occur. Officials attempted to appease protesters in late July with efforts including the expansion of job positions and applications for financial assistance.
Protesters rejected the government’s offers of dialogue and demonstrations began as scheduled on August 1, quickly turning violent with three protesters confirmed dead in the northern state of Kaduna. Updated reports on August 2 released by Amnesty International placed the death toll at 13 protesters across the northern states of Borno, Kaduna, and Niger. The death toll has continued to be disputed with police providing lower estimates. Protesters clashed with police in Abuja and Kano, but no deaths occurred. While police were fully mobilized for responses to protests, officials indicated they could potentially request military assistance depending on the continued intensity of the protests. By August 3, roughly 700 people had been arrested during protests and nine police officers had been injured, according to reports released by police. Officers used tear gas and arrested several dozen protesters when a march towards government offices in Abuja was attempted.
Journalists covering the protests have also faced violence, with 11 journalists arrested and 31 instances of violence against journalists recorded. The Centre for Journalism Innovation and Development (CJID) sharply criticized the government and stated evidence was suggesting authorities were purposely targeting journalists covering the protests rather than guaranteeing security for the protest events to be covered safely. Journalists who claimed to be attacked stated that they maintained distance from protesters and wore identification marking them as reporters. Abuse of journalists by security forces is common in Nigeria.
Protests and civil unrest are not uncommon in Nigeria. Historically, security services are known to use heavy-handed tactics to suppress protests by force. The likelihood of protests turning violent in Nigeria is typically high. The risk of violence is exacerbated under the current political landscape due to President Bola Tinubu’s economic policies being extremely divisive and unpopular. President Tinubu has stated he understands the anger of protesters but continues to maintain that his reforms are necessary for restoring economic growth, despite causing significant inflation and a weakening currency. His remarks calling for protests to cease have been widely criticized for failing to address any of the protesters’ specific concerns or demands. Protesters have not abandoned their plans to continue demonstrations.
As the protests continue, the military maintains it is not ruling out intervening in the near term to quell any further violence. The possibility of escalation, as efforts by the government for adequate response have been minimal, makes the likelihood of violence in the developing protest situation high.
EUROPE AND THE COMMONWEALTH OF INDEPENDENT STATES (ECIS)
Misinformation and the Far-right Leads to Heightened Unrest Levels in the United Kingdom (U.K.)
On July 29, three young girls were killed in a knife attack in Southport (North West Region), U.K. perpetrated by a 17-year-old, who was subsequently arrested by the authorities. Ten other individuals, eight children and two adults, were also injured in the attack. The attacker has been charged with three counts of murder and 10 counts of attempted murder. The incident led to widespread mourning throughout the U.K. and misinformation regarding the attacker’s identity, which falsely suggested the individual as a Muslim migrant. The misinformation prompted widespread unrest throughout the country, with far-right protesters engaged in violent demonstrations against Muslims and immigrants.
Over 400 people have been arrested in relation to the riots, with charges ranging from violent disorder, criminal damage, assault of emergency workers, racially aggravated offenses, and possession of illegal substances. Some individuals have since been served with prison sentences ranging from two months to three years. Soon after the riots began, it became common to see counter-protest groups clashing with far-right demonstrators, which increased the risk of violent escalation at demonstrations.
The spread of misinformation in the aftermath of similar incidents and nationwide mourning has been known to prompt high levels of unrest. In November 2023, riots broke out in Dublin following a stabbing near a primary school where a man attacked three children and two adults. The suspect was an Irish citizen, but many claimed he was an immigrant. This misinformation resulted in violent anti-immigration protests consisting of vandalism, arson, and looting. Cars, buses, and police vehicles were set on fire; 34 individuals were arrested; and officials reported that the violence resulted in significant infrastructural damage amounting to millions of dollars.
Following the Southport knife attack and the swift spreading of misinformation, demonstrations throughout the U.K. escalated for several days with riots consisting of looting, arson, and clashes between far-right demonstrators, counter-protesters, and the police. On August 4, 2024, a Holiday Inn Express hotel in Rotherham (Yorkshire and the Humber region), which was housing asylum seekers was violently attacked by far-right protesters. The demonstrators attempted to break into the hotel and continuously threw projectiles, including incendiary devices, at the police officers who were attempting to stop the attack. Similarly, a hotel in Belfast, the capital of Northern Ireland, U.K. was targeted by far-right anti-immigration protesters. Protesters attempted to break into the hotel and, when they were unable to breach the entry, began throwing bricks and other projectiles at the hotel.
Many of the far-right demonstrators’ rhetoric is anti-Muslim and anti-immigration, which has led to a sharp increase in various forms of harassment towards Muslims and people of South Asian or Arab ethnicities. Forms of harassment witnessed include but has not been limited to verbal abuse, physical assaults, vandalism of Mosques and Islamic centers, and intimidation. While the authorities have managed to quell the unrest from escalating further, the incident is a reminder of the heightened immigration and religious divisions that have impacted the country in recent years. Further related incidents cannot be ruled out; it remains to be seen if authorities will implement measures to ensure the spread of misinformation can be controlled in such future incidents, and if the continued targeting of minority communities can be curtailed.
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