Monthly Risk Spotlight: September 2025

AMERICAS

Chikungunya: Tracking the Spread and Response
Chikungunya, a mosquito-borne viral disease, is an escalating public health concern across Latin America. Transmitted by the same mosquitoes responsible for spreading Dengue and Zika, the virus can cause severe and sometimes long-lasting symptoms. The virus manifests with a sudden onset of high fever and severe joint pain, with other symptoms including rash, fatigue, headache, and muscle pain. While most people fully recover, many experience chronic joint pain and fatigue for years. In rare cases, the disease can be fatal, particularly for young infants, older adults and those with underlying health conditions. Chikungunya infections that occur during pregnancy usually do not transmit the virus to the fetus. However, intrapartum transmission can result in neonatal complications.

Latin America has emerged as a hotspot for the virus, with Brazil, Bolivia, Paraguay, and the Dominican Republic reporting high infection rates. In 2025 alone, more than 212,000 cases and 110 deaths have been documented across the region. Experts identify climate change and rapid urbanization as key drivers to the spread of the disease. Rising temperatures and heavier rainfall create ideal breeding conditions for mosquitoes, while developing infrastructure and sanitation in urban areas allow mosquitos to expand their habitats. Warmer climates have also enabled mosquitoes to thrive at higher altitudes and latitudes, making outbreaks more frequent and harder to predict.

Preventative efforts focus on reducing mosquito populations and limiting human exposure. Travelers are advised to use EPA-registered insect repellents containing DEET, wear long-sleeved clothing, and sleep under mosquito nets. Clothing and gear can be treated with permethrin for added protection. Avoiding peak biting activity periods after sunrise and at sunset and staying in air-conditioned or well-screened accommodations can also help reduce exposure.

Chikungunya is more than just a viral infection; it is a growing public health challenge with social and economic implications for Latin America. As climate change and urbanization accelerate, individual precautions and community-level interventions will prove to be essential for protecting vulnerable populations and reducing long-term implications of this emerging threat.

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA (MENA)

Influence and Insecurity: Cybercrime Laws and Their Crackdown on Social Media Users
Foreign nationals in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) face increased legal risks as governments expand the use of vague cybercrime laws to regulate online activity. Although often justified on national security grounds, these statutes are now being enforced beyond activists or political dissidents. In some cases, social media posts that were created years earlier, including content from creators outside the region, have led to arrest, detention, or deportation.

Two recent cases illustrate this trend. Salma al-Shehab, a Saudi doctoral student at the University of Leeds, was arrested in 2021 while on holiday in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA; Saudi Arabia) for reposting women’s rights messages on social media. She served four years in prison before being released in 2025. In 2024, British national Ahmed al-Doush was arrested at King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh and sentenced to ten years in prison for social media posts made in 2018 and for his association with a known government critic. Both cases underscore how past digital activity, even if considered benign internationally, can be prosecuted retroactively under local cybercrime provisions.

The scope of enforcement extends beyond political speech. In Egypt, authorities have used indecency and financial crime laws to target TikTok influencers, arresting dozens of young content creators in 2025. One 19-year-old with more than nine million followers was charged with distributing indecent material and laundering earnings of $300,000 USD (14.6 million EGP). In the United Arab Emirates (UAE), a traveler was detained at Abu Dhabi International Airport (AUH) for posting a negative Google review, as Emirati law criminalizes any statement that could be seen as damaging to the state’s “reputation, prestige, or dignity.”

For foreign nationals, especially younger and more digitally active travelers, the risks of unintentional violations are increasing. Travelers visiting the region are advised to review their digital footprint before departure, set accounts to private, disable geotagging, and avoid posting content related to politics, religion, or social issues while in-country. Even neutral posts about economic conditions or social matters can be reinterpreted under the sweeping definitions embedded in these laws.

Looking ahead, this trend is expected to continue. Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE are likely to expand enforcement, including retroactive enforcement on older content. For organizations, integrating digital exposure assessments into pre-travel briefings is becoming increasingly essential. In an environment where the simple act of posting or sharing can trigger legal consequences, cautious online behavior is no longer optional, but a baseline requirement for safe travel in the region.

ASIA-PACIFIC (APAC)

From Parliament to Protest: Indonesia’s Housing Allowance Uprising
In late August 2025, widespread demonstrations erupted across Indonesia, with many escalating into violent unrest. The protests were triggered by public outrage over a proposed increase in the housing allowance for members of the Indonesian House of Representatives (DPR), who already receive multiple taxpayer-funded benefits.

University students led much of the movement, with demonstrations beginning on campuses before spreading nationwide. Public anger centered on a bill that sought to increase monthly housing allowances for DPR members to approximately $3,057 USD – nearly 10 times Indonesia’s minimum wage. Combined with food and transportation stipends, total monthly compensation for DPR members would exceed $6,000 USD.  The proposal came amid rising costs for food and housing, high unemployment, and tax hikes, fueling broader frustrations over inequality.

Protests quickly spread to major cities, including Jakarta, Bandung, Surabaya, Medan, and even to Bali, a key tourist hub. In Jakarta, clashes near parliament turned violent, with government buildings looted and set on fire. Nationwide, at least 10 people were killed and thousands were injured.

Tensions escalated on August 28, 2025, when a motorcycle taxi driver was killed by a police vehicle during a crackdown on demonstrators. His death galvanized protesters, particularly students, who expanded their demands to include police reform and the resignation of senior law enforcement officials.

The unrest poses the most serious challenge yet to President Prabowo Subianto, who took office in October 2024. In response, the government suspended five DPR members, dishonorably discharged the officer involved in the fatality, and pledged to review the allowance proposal. Protest leaders criticized the president’s response as inadequate, demanding deeper reforms, particularly within the police force.

The unrest has elevated security risks for foreigners. Several diplomatic missions issued advisories urging travelers and expats to avoid the demonstrations. The protests highlight growing anger over inequality and corruption in Indonesia. With global trade barriers threatening the country’s export-driven economy, worsening conditions could fuel further political unrest despite government attempts to suppress dissent.

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

From the U.S. to Africa: Deportation Deal Stirs Controversy
Several African nations, including Eswatini, Rwanda, and Uganda, have agreed to accept third-country nationals denied asylum in the United States. The move has drawn criticism as exploitive, reinforcing historical grievances tied to economic and cultural disruption under colonial rule. Deporting migrants to Africa rather than Europe has been widely criticized as protecting Western interests while burdening African states. The U.S. decision to deport migrants to Africa while offering resettlement opportunities to white Afrikaners citing discrimination in South Africa has intensified criticism of racial and geopolitical bias. Rising anti-Western sentiment could create problems for travelers, including tighter scrutiny at checkpoints, protests in urban centers, or heightened suspicion during community interactions.

In Uganda, officials under U.S. sanctions have expressed strong support for the deal, hoping it could ease restrictions. However, the financial terms and long-term benefits of the arrangement remain unclear. Public opinion leans negative, with many noting that Uganda already hosts approximately 1.7 million refugees, making it the largest host nation in Africa, a burden that strains its infrastructure, economy, and public services. Critics argue the deal primarily serves President Yoweri Museveni’s interests; in power since 1986, he maintains tight political control and faces allegations of corruption. With limited parliamentary oversight, citizens have little influence over such agreements.

While countries agreeing to resettle migrants pledge to provide housing, healthcare, and vocational training, they often struggle to meet the basic needs of their own populations. Concerns deepened in July 2025 after the U.S. deported convicted criminals despite assurances to the contrary. On July 16, five convicted criminals from Cuba, Jamaica, Laos, Vietnam, and Yemen were sent to Eswatini, in addition to eight men convicted of murder, sexual assault, and robbery who were deported to South Sudan earlier that month. These transfers have fueled diplomatic tensions, with South Africa formally protesting Eswatini’s role in accepting deportees amidst ongoing political instability and human rights concerns.

For travelers to this region, there may be delays in accessing services, verbal hostility in public settings, or opportunistic targeting during protest activity. Visitors are advised to monitor local sentiment, exercise cultural awareness, and prepare for possible disruptions tied to protests of diplomatic fallout.

EUROPE AND THE COMMONWEALTH OF INDEPENDENT STATES (ECIS)

The Jubilee Holy Year Exacerbates Overtourism and Increases Security Risk
Vatican City’s Jubilee Holy Year in 2025 is drawing unprecedented crowds, straining Italy’s infrastructure and amplifying risks. More than 35 million visitors are excepted to flock to Rome and the Vatican to celebrate throughout the year, adding to Italy’s already heavy tourism volume.

The 2025 Jubilee, themed “Pilgrims of Hope,” is intended as a year of spiritual renewal, reconciliation, and a renewed focus on peace. The Holy Year—also known as a Jubilee Year—is celebrated in the Roman Catholic Church only once every 25 years as an Ordinary Jubilee, unless the Pope declares an Extraordinary Jubilee for special occasions. The last Ordinary Jubilee occurred in 2000, making the current 2025 celebration the first in a quarter-century. A key element of the celebration is pilgrimage to the Vatican – prompting security build-up around Rome.

Monthly “Jubilee” events are at the center of the celebrations, each attracting large crowds. Key gatherings in October include:

• • October 4-5: Jubilee of the Missions and Jubilee of Migrants

  • October 8-9: Jubilee of Consecrated Life

  • October 11-12: Jubilee of Marian Spirituality

  • October 31-November 2: Jubilee of the World of Education

  • The Jubilee celebration is set to conclude on January 6, 2026.

Travelers should expect heavy congestion and delays throughout Rome, with heightened risks during politically sensitive events. The Jubilee of Migrants (October 4-5) may draw protests over Italy’s immigration debate, creating opportunities for escalation. Security officials warn of the potential for “lone wolf” attacks near religious sites or crowded tourist areas. In addition, petty crime and protests may increase during these events, while organized crime remains a threat.

Rome’s broader security environment reflects its unique position as both a global religious destination and symbolic target. Since 2016, the city has deployed military patrols, surveillance systems, and vehicle barriers to mitigate these risks; and more recently, security infrastructure in Rome has been strengthened ahead of the Jubilee. Metro stations and landmarks such as the Colosseum and Trevi Fountain are now under enhanced monitoring. High-risk areas, including St. Peter’s Square, are now equipped with anti-drone technology, metal detectors, and mobile barriers. Italy’s Center for Cyber Security is also deploying advanced digital protections to safeguard both individual events and critical infrastructure.

Despite these enhanced security efforts, visitors should still proceed with caution and practice sound situational awareness. Travelers should ahead for potential disruptions and delays, prepare for possible intermittent internet/mobile service outages due to network overload, and plan travel and accommodations well in advance.

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