Monthly Risk Spotlight: October 2025

AMERICAS

Femicide and Digital Exposure in Latin America: An Emerging Risk Vector
Gender-based violence (GBV) against women, aka femicide, remains a deeply rooted issue across Latin America.   Recent high-profile killings in Argentina and Mexico have reignited public debate and sparked protests across the region. As these tragedies unfold in increasingly visible ways online, their public nature is amplified by digital platforms, deepening their impact and reach.

In September, three women in Buenos Aires (Argentina) were killed in an incident reportedly livestreamed to a private Instagram group. Authorities have described it as a suspected narco-linked femicide. Weeks later, a 23-year-old influencer was shot dead while broadcasting from her salon in Zapopan (Mexico). Prior to the attack, she had voiced concerns about her safety. Both cases demonstrate the growing risk of public and digitally amplified gender-based violence in the region.

Femicide is not a new phenomenon. In 2023, over 3,900 women were killed across Latin America for gender-related reasons. Countries with some of the highest femicide rates include Bolivia, El Salvador, Honduras, and Mexico. Although legal frameworks exist in many jurisdictions, enforcement is inconsistent, and conviction rates remain low. In some areas, weak institutional capacity, social stigma, and the influence of organized crime contribute to systemic impunity.

Recent cases highlight how technology has amplified risks of violence against women. Livestreamed attacks and digital threats reflect a growing intersection between visibility and vulnerability, especially for women in public-facing professions. Social media has increasingly become both a platform for visibility and, paradoxically, a risk vector, particularly where law enforcement may be slow to respond or influenced by criminal groups.

Female travelers to Latin America, particularly those in the public eye, working independently, or traveling through higher-risk regions, should take heightened digital precautions. Sharing real-time locations, livestreaming in semi-private settings, or engaging with unfamiliar social media accounts may increase exposure.

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA (MENA)

Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Defense Realignment: Implications for Investment and Regional Stability
Israel’s September 9th strike against Hamas leadership in Doha (Qatar) has heightened tensions across the Gulf, raising concerns for foreign investors and business travelers. The escalation poses a concern to investor confidence, potentially disrupting foreign capital flows and deterring business travel if instability persists. Regional tensions have increased security screenings at ports and airports, leading to delays and rerouted itineraries, particularly in maritime and air corridors near conflict zones. Members of the GCC view Israel’s actions as a broader challenge to regional sovereignty, underscoring the urgency of a coordinated defense strategy to preserve stability and mitigate emerging political risks to both investment and travel.

Following Israel’s recent strike, the GCC announced plans to activate its joint defense mechanism, signaling a shift toward greater regional autonomy. This development has prompted GCC members to reassess the reliability of traditional security partners, including the United States.

Qatar now faces heightened pressure after two separate incidents: Iran’s retaliation on the al-Udeid Air Base following a joint U.S.-Israel operation targeting Iran’s nuclear sites, and a subsequent direct attack by Israel. These events have raised concerns about the stability of key transit hubs and airspace routes, which briefly faced temporary disruptions. In response, GCC efforts to safeguard infrastructure could improve the safety of these networks and boost investor confidence in sending travelers to the region. Enhancing security around these assets helps minimize operational disruptions, which is critical for maintaining workforce and expatriate mobility. A coordinated GCC strategy may also reduce dependence on external security actors, discourage future unilateral counterterrorism actions, and foster internal cooperation to mitigate broader regional impacts on travel.

Given the Gulf’s strategic role in global energy trade, safeguarding strategic maritime corridors is essential to ensuring the uninterrupted flow of oil and goods. Risks such as terrorism, smuggling, and geopolitical tensions can lead to shipping delays, port closures, or increased inspections-disrupting global security chains. A formal GCC defense pact would signal political unity and reassure investors of the region’s ability to collectively respond to threats.  Strengthening regional defense through improved intelligence sharing and modernized contingency planning would enhance military readiness and deterrence, contributing to overall stability. Ultimately, a secure and stable Gulf region could lower risk premiums, reduce maritime insurance costs, and enhance investor confidence, making it a more attractive destination for foreign direct investment and economic partnerships.

In the short to medium term, GCC realignment is unlikely to eliminate risks from further Israeli strikes or regional escalations. Travelers and organizations should expect sustained security measures at critical infrastructure, possible flight route adjustments, and fluctuating investor sentiment tied to regional security developments. To build investor confidence in the Gulf region, organizations can utilize pre-travel briefings, route assessments, and evacuation frameworks to support informed decision-making and implement proactive mitigation strategies. These efforts can enhance preparedness, mitigate potential losses, and facilitate more informed investment planning.

ASIA-PACIFIC (APAC)

Nepal’s Digital Clampdown: How a Social Media Ban Triggered State Collapse and Unprecedented Disruption
In September 2025, Nepal’s decision to ban major social media platforms ignited one of the most dramatic political crises in the country’s recent history. What began as a government attempt to enforce compliance from tech companies quickly evolved into mass unrest and the collapse of the sitting government. This serves as a reminder that fragile governance can quickly amplify risks for travelers and international operations across the region.

The ban, announced by then Prime Minister Khadga Prasad Sharma Oli, targeted platforms including Facebook, YouTube, and X. Officials framed the move as a necessary step to address non-compliance by social media companies. However, critics saw it as an attempt to suppress free speech and dissent. Significantly, this action by the government came at a time of high unemployment, stagnant wages, rising inflation, and alleged corruption. The convergence of an unpopular social media ban and worsening economic conditions created a volatile environment that set the stage for unrest in Nepal.

Shortly after the government announced the ban, peaceful demonstrations began to materialize in the capital, Kathmandu. Initially, protesters demanded the restoration of social media access. However, the demonstrations quickly turned into a broader movement demanding significant economic and governmental reforms. The protests became violent when clashes between demonstrators and local security forces broke out near the county’s parliament building. Security services using live ammunition opened fire on demonstrators, resulting in multiple deaths. Following this heavy-handed response, demonstrators set fire to government installations across Kathmandu, including the parliament building, the supreme court, and the Prime Minister’s residence. Due to the violent nature of the demonstrations, Prime Minister Oli resigned, and the government he led collapsed. In total, 72 people were killed, and thousands were injured during the uprising.

Following the collapse of Prime Minister Oli’s government, Sushila Karki was appointed as the interim Prime Minister. Her administration immediately pledged to hold elections in March 2026 and reverse the social media ban. Despite Prime Minister Karki’s reforms, tensions remain high, and activists remain skeptical of the new government.

The speed and severity of the uprising was unprecedented in Nepal and led to significant disruption across the region. Roads were blocked, curfews were imposed without notice, and communications was interrupted, posing serious challenges to security and crisis response operations. International NGOs and foreign embassies reported difficulty coordinating staff movements, while multiple commercial flights were delayed or cancelled.

Looking ahead, Nepal faces a volatile recovery. The rollback of the social media ban may have calmed immediate tensions, but unresolved economic grievances remain. If current trends persist, further demonstrations in Nepal are likely to occur.  The Nepal uprising highlights the need for thorough crisis response planning that includes procedures for digital blackouts and rapidly escalating unrest.

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

Madagascar: Escalating Protests Expose Fragile Stability
Rapidly escalating protests in Madagascar throughout the month of September highlight the country’s limited capacity to manage unrest, evolving from small gatherings into widespread violence and political upheaval. The unrest underscores deep-rooted governance challenges and heightens the risk of further instability in the short term.

Protests began on September 15th in response to allegations of government corruption and restrictions on power and water supplies. Initially small and supported by non-governmental organizations (NGOs), the movement quickly gained traction through the “Gen Z Madagascar” Facebook page, echoing similar youth-driven protest movements in Indonesia, Morocco, and Nepal. Calls for mass mobilization prompted local authorities to impose bans, citing growing concerns over civil disorders.

By September 25th, demonstrations in the capital intensified. Security services used tear gas and rubber bullets to disperse protesters attempting to gather in the Ambohijatovo neighborhood, leading to looting, vandalism, and arson targeting the homes of pro-government politicians. Authorities imposed an overnight curfew, while further clashes near the city’s train station led to additional fatalities, including a member of parliament.

As unrest spread nationwide, President Andry Rajoelina dismissed key ministers, dissolved the government on September 29, and later appointed a new prime minister. Despite these measures, protests have continued, with demonstrators demanding Rajoelina’s resignation and the release of detained protesters. A United Nations (UN) report estimated at least 22 fatalities and more than 100 injuries, though figures remain disputed. While protest violence has subsided since early October, tensions persist as the government attempts to open a national dialogue.

This is not the first time Madagascar has experienced large-scale unrest. Major protests in 2009 led to a military-backed coup that ousted then-President Marc Ravalomanana and brought Rajoelina to power. That crisis resulted in hundreds of deaths and prolonged international isolation, crippling the economy and investor confidence. While the current demonstrations remain smaller in scale, the speed and intensity of which they are escalating draw concerning parallels, particularly given the similar triggers of corruption, service shortages, and perceived government indifference. The government’s response, focused on reshuffling leadership rather than addressing underlying grievances, has done little to de-escalate tensions or rebuild public trust.

In the near term, further demonstrations are likely to occur in Antananarivo and major provincial centers, particularly around government installations, universities, and symbolic sites. Foreign nationals should anticipate intermittent road closures, increased security checkpoints, and disruptions to utilities, fuel, and essential goods and services. The spread of misinformation on social media and ongoing developments will continue to challenge the accuracy of available information. Travelers should remain vigilant, avoid protest-prone areas, and maintain flexible movement plans to ensure safety and operational continuity as the situation evolves.

EUROPE AND THE COMMONWEALTH OF INDEPENDENT STATES (ECIS)

Pro-Russian AI Disinformation Campaign
Russia’s use of artificial intelligence (AI) to drive disinformation has grown, amplifying false narratives, eroding trust in news outlets, and contributing to political polarization. Networks such as Storm-1679 and Storm-1516 circulated content imitating those from established news outlets. Such operations undermine trust in credible media sources and provide a platform for extremist groups to amplify their influence.

Political influencers and world leaders have fallen for this ploy, including Elon Musk and U.S. President Donald Trump. While the sources of funding for these operations remain unclear, analysts frequently note potential links to the Russian government.

Disinformation, defined as the intentional spread of verifiably false information, has historical roots in the Russian Federation, with origins tracing back to Soviet-era influence campaigns designed to create division and weaken opposing alliances. Russia’s disinformation activity goes beyond simple propaganda, seeking to sway public sentiment and advance narratives favorable to Russian interests.  The war in Ukraine was preceded by years of disinformation campaigns that helped shape public support for the invasion. To destabilize other states, war serves as a perfect distraction, allowing for the Russian Federation to assert its dominance over its own people and on the world stage.

The sophistication of these tactics continues to evolve. On August 6th, 2025, a fabricated article was circulated across at least 13 countries, including Hungary, Pakistan, Serbia, and Vietnam, falsely claiming that Russian forces had captured two British intelligence officers.  The report, supported by a convincing AI-generated photo, briefly gained traction before being debunked.  Such incidents are part of an ongoing strategy to manipulate public opinion and destabilize foreign societies through false or misleading information.

For travelers, misinformation can distort situational awareness, fuel unrest, and contribute to anti-Western sentiment. Organizations should rely on verified official sources, train staff to recognize disinformation, and consider its potential impact on traveler safety and risk assessments.

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