Monthly Risk Spotlight: May 2025

AMERICAS 

Panama’s Passage: Protests, Power, and Pursuit of Pacific Primacy
An unexpected strategic development of the Trump administration is its framing of relations with other Western Hemisphere neighbors, including the threat to regain control of the Panama Canal. As a result, anti-American sentiment and a sharp rise in instability risk are changing the security and travel dynamics in the Central American nation. The Trump administration justified ‘taking back’ the Panama Canal by citing the threat of a renewed trade war with China. This may result in Panama, along with other countries in the region, being forced to side with the U.S. or China in a new two-sided economic trade war.

The Panama Canal, first opened in 1914, has long been viewed as a symbol of American ingenuity and prosperity, uniting both the Pacific and Atlantic oceans via a series of canals.  Despite its global commercial significance, under American administration, the canal’s wealth did not benefit Panamanians, leading to anti-American protests. This conflict was resolved by a 1977 agreement to transfer the canal to Panama by the end of 1999, requiring a two-thirds majority approval in the U.S. Senate and adherence to neutrality principles by Panama.

Since the handover, Panama has invested in enhancing the canal, including financing an expansion and creating a third set of locks to accommodate newer, larger ships. Additionally, and important to the current Trump administration’s complaint against unfair treatment, major port facilities are located on both the Atlantic and Pacific terminals of the canal. Trump has claimed that Panama is taking advantage of the U.S. and opening itself up to China, citing the control of the country’s two major ports by Hutchinson, a Hong Kong-based company, as a strategic threat to American shipping. Trump also claims that Panama is charging excessive rates to the U.S., even after the U.S. built the Canal and, therefore, should have preferential transit pricing compared to other countries. To placate these demands, President Mulino met with American officials and signed a memorandum of understanding that established a framework for joint security operations in Panama. The agreement permits U.S. personnel and contractors to operate from Panamanian installations, enabling American forces to conduct aerial and maritime missions within the country.

The agreement to host American military forces resonates within Panamanian society as a return to an era in which American military forces exerted control over the Panama Canal Zone. Protesters accused President Mulino of compromising Panama’s sovereignty by signing the deal, yielding to the demands of the Trump administration, and jeopardizing Panama’s neutrality. Anti-American sentiment is high, and in addition to the general unrest in the country, new developments and challenges are increasing due to the tumultuous geopolitical rivalries between the U.S. and China. The government of Panama, no matter which side it tries to placate, will likely anger the U.S. or Chinese interests, and could face economic and political pressures from both countries in the coming months. In the geopolitical dance between the U.S. and China over global supremacy, the small strategic countries like Panama and its people will be left stumbling to the offbeat rhythm of major powers.

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA (MENA)

Rising Resistance: A Stand Against Türkiye’s Democratic Decline
The detention of a prominent presidential candidate and the suppression of protests signal a concerning crossroads between democracy and authoritarianism for Türkiye. On March 22, tens of thousands protested nationwide against the arrest of Ekrem Imamoglu, Mayor of Istanbul and a potential 2028 presidential candidate. As a member of the Republican People’s Party (CHP), Imamoglu took office in 2019 and was re-elected in 2024. His arrest on corruption and bribery charges sparked Türkiye’s largest protests in over a decade. Protests in Istanbul have been violent, prompting a heavy-handed response and mass arrests by security services. Notably, in the capital, Ankara, police used water cannons and tear gas against activists. Despite bans on public demonstrations implemented by local authorities, activists in Istanbul (Marmara Region), Izmir (Aegean Region), and Ankara, continued to assemble. Furthermore, dozens of people were detained in Ankara over what authorities called provocative posts on social media. Imamoglu’s supporters claim the charges are politicized and aimed at blocking him from running for president. The crackdown on protests sheds light on Türkiye’s wider struggle to preserve democracy.

On April 18, Türkiye began mass trials to prosecute 189 people who took part in nationwide demonstrations, including journalists and student activists. Of the more than 2,000 people arrested, the overwhelming majority were university students, and roughly 250 have been released from imprisonment. Approximately 90% of Turkish media remains under government influence, with journalists being frequently targeted by the government in an attempt to suppress dissent and control the narrative of domestic concerns. The arrests of journalists underscore a gradual erosion of rights under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Erdogan has held office since 2003 and could remain in power until 2029 if reelected. Erdoğan and his Justice and Development Party (AKP) consolidated control overstate institutions and established vast influence over Türkiye’s judiciary, police, and military. After an attempted coup in July 2016, Türkiye’s government ousted more than 4,000 judges and replaced them with supporters of Erdogan. As the trials commence, observers have warned of increased centralization of power within the country.

The protests have created challenges for both domestic and international travel. With Istanbul being the epicenter of protests, authorities have implemented travel restrictions to contain the unrest, including the closure of key routes that lead into the city and implementing several checkpoints. Public transit disruptions have periodically affected taxis, buses, and trains. Additionally, flights into Istanbul Airport (IST) have been previously delayed due to bolstered security checkpoints or rerouted altogether. Looking ahead, the 2028 presidential elections may present challenges and constraints on political dissent. This may create obstacles for business operations and travelers, as the risk of civil unrest will likely remain elevated. Travelers are advised to monitor local news outlets to stay updated on the latest travel advisories and avoid all protests, as precedent suggests they can escalate.

Without reform, Türkiye’s political climate will likely remain in turmoil, creating complications not only for domestic stability but also for travel, business continuity, and the country’s operational environment. The continual protests led by mostly younger demographics indicate a deeper societal dissatisfaction compared to older opposition movements, which may further fuel the momentum of resistance. Concerns with the treatment of political opponents, limitations on press freedoms and civil liberties, and the weakening of democratic institutions place Türkiye at continued risk of democratic backsliding. If these challenges remain unaddressed, the unrest will likely persist, charged by an increasing generational divide and discontent with domestic political trajectory.

ASIA-PACIFIC (APAC)

Seismic Shockwaves: Earthquake Causes Disruptions in Both Myanmar and Thailand
On April 5, a 6.8 magnitude earthquake struck Myanmar, with tremors felt across northern Thailand, China, and India. The epicenter was in Shan State, Myanmar, with seismic activity reaching Chiang Mai, Chiang Rai, and Bangkok. Structural damage in Bangkok was minimal due to strong building codes, but twenty-two fatalities occurred from the collapse of a building under construction. In contrast, significant casualties were recorded in Myanmar, exacerbated by the country’s fragile infrastructure and ongoing civil war. The incident tested the emergency preparedness of both nations and further highlighted the stark contrast in risk profiles between neighboring states.

The earthquake exacerbates the risks to travelers and organizations in an already volatile security environment. Myanmar has been experiencing a civil war since early 2021, when the military overthrew the democratically elected government in a coup d’état. Since then, the civil war has resulted in a significant deterioration of national infrastructure, with the rule of law having collapsed in many parts of the country. The central government in the capital, Naypyidaw, does not exercise full control over the country, hindering emergency response efforts. Many of the regions within Myanmar most affected by the earthquake are under the control of rebel groups, including the states of Shan and Kachin. Despite a military call for a nationwide ceasefire, fighting has continued. Official statistics vary, but the actual number of fatalities likely far exceeds the reported figures. A heightened military and emergency response presence should be expected throughout Myanmar, especially in the Shan and Kachin states. Furthermore, it is possible that the ongoing conflict and the earthquake could further destabilize governance and the quality of infrastructure.

While Thailand is well prepared for natural disasters, Myanmar’s limited infrastructure and ongoing civil war elevate the country’s risk profile. The earthquake occurred along the Alpide Belt, a seismically active fault system that runs through Southeast Asia, affecting countries such as Myanmar, Thailand, China, Nepal, and India. While earthquakes remain difficult to predict with precision, regional and international agencies are capable of monitoring tectonic activity in real time. The severe impact in Myanmar is largely due to a lack of investment in such monitoring, and in resilient infrastructure, rather than the suddenness of the event.

Organizations operating in the region should continue to factor seismic risk into contingency planning, particularly when local emergency capabilities are limited. In unstable environments, natural disasters can rapidly become compounded crises. Proactive preparedness, including destination-specific risk assessments, structural safety evaluations, and coordinated evacuation protocols, remains essential to safeguarding personnel and operations.

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

Executive Detention and Anti-Corruption: Rwanda Crackdown Signals Broader Risks in African Mining Sector
On April 26, the Rwanda Investigation Bureau (RIB) announced the arrest of seven individuals, including three senior officials from the Rwanda Mines, Petroleum, and Gas Board (RMB), in a corruption and money laundering investigation. The officials, all division managers, were detained with four contractors accused of acting as accomplices. All seven were sent to detention facilities in the Nyarugenge and Rwezamenyo districts of the capital, Kigali.

Controversy surrounding the RMB is not new. In March 2025, the European Union sanctioned RMB Managing Director Francis Gatare for alleged corrupt practices, further highlighting growing scrutiny of Rwanda’s mining sector. The industry is a critical pillar of the national economy, prompting the government to intensify anti-corruption efforts across both public and private sectors. Under Rwandan law, there is no statute of limitations for corruption, enabling authorities to investigate alleged offenses regardless of when they occurred. While authorities have reaffirmed their commitment to transparency and accountability, details regarding the alleged misconduct remain limited.

The case also relates to wider regional issues. Recent corruption investigations have touched on the illegal trafficking of minerals originating from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), a sensitive issue given Rwanda’s diplomatic standoff with officials in Kinshasa. The DRC continues to grapple with instability in its eastern provinces, where resources are vulnerable to exploitation by armed groups, including the March 23 Movement (M23). Continued unauthorized trade of these minerals threatens to undermine fragile peace negotiations and further strain regional relations.

Beyond Rwanda, this case underscores a wider trend across Africa involving the detention of foreign executives amid legal disputes or regulatory crackdowns. In 2024, several foreign national employees in Mali’s mining sector were detained amid contractual disputes, while in Nigeria, two executives from a cryptocurrency firm were arrested under unclear circumstances. These incidents highlight a pattern in which business disagreements, regulatory ambiguities, or corruption allegations can escalate into detention, particularly in politically sensitive sectors like mining, energy, and finance.

Such developments carry implications for international businesses operating across the continent. While some charges may be legitimate, there is also a history of governments using legal mechanisms—including executive detention—as leverage in negotiations or to assert greater control over foreign interests. These incidents often present complex legal and diplomatic challenges, particularly when local judicial processes diverge from international norms.

Organizations with operations in high-risk jurisdictions should ensure that robust legal and crisis response frameworks are in place. This includes maintaining access to local legal counsel, preparing diplomatic engagement strategies, and offering pre-deployment briefings to at-risk staff. While diplomatic missions may offer limited assistance, preparedness remains the most reliable safeguard against reputational and operational fallout from executive detention abroad.

EUROPE AND THE COMMONWEALTH OF INDEPENDENT STATES (ECIS) 

Rising Anti-Tourist Rhetoric Threatens Summer Travel in Europe
This summer, Europe is set to experience a wave of anti-tourism protests aimed at confronting the negative impacts of mass tourism on local communities, infrastructure, and the environment. The first major coordinated day of action is scheduled for June 15, spanning popular travel destinations across Southern Europe, including major cities in Italy, Spain, and Portugal. The Southern Europe Network Against Touristification (SET Network), a grassroots coalition, is leading these protests, arguing that current tourism models prioritize profits over the well-being of local residents.

Demonstrations are expected in popular tourist destinations such as Barcelona (Catalonia), Venice (Veneto), Lisbon, and Sicily (Palermo). Planned actions include marches through heavily visited areas, picketing at airports—potentially causing flight delays or cancellations—and sporadic blockades of historic sites and access routes used by tour buses. Organizers hope that the visibility and scale of these protests will force public outrage over the unchecked expansion of tourism, which they say is pushing locals out of their neighborhoods, inflating housing prices, and degrading the environment.

The upcoming demonstrations follow a rising tide of anti-tourism sentiment across Europe. In recent years, residents of popular destinations have staged increasingly visible and disruptive protests to voice their grievances. In Barcelona, some protesters have taken to spraying tourists with water pistols at landmarks such as the Sagrada Familia and popular tourist areas such as the harborside restaurants. In Venice, opposition to cruise ships has been expressed through marches and graffiti reading “Tourists go home.” Meanwhile, on the Canary Islands, tens of thousands of residents recently rallied to demand a reevaluation of the islands’ tourism-based economy. Additionally, Amsterdam has initiated campaigns to discourage certain visitors, particularly young partygoers. Like the demonstrations in Southern Europe, protesters in these cities have blocked access to waterfronts, shouted slogans, and waved banners urging authorities to act.

Notably, this movement is not limited to Europe. Around the world, destinations such as Hawai’i and Bali (Indonesia) have also seen pushback against overtourism. Protesters in these locations have highlighted cultural erosion, environmental damage, and the displacement of locals as key concerns. Organizers across the globe hope these demonstrations will compel governments to reconsider tourism models and implement policies promoting sustainability and equity.

Should the June 15 protests prove effective, they could accelerate policy shifts. These might include increased tourism taxes, as already implemented in Bali and Venice, visitor caps at high-traffic attractions, limits on cruise ship access, stricter rules on short-term rentals like Airbnb, and greater promotion of off-season travel.

As the peak summer travel season approaches, coupled with sporadic anti-tourism protests, travelers should anticipate potential disruptions throughout Europe. It is essential to verify itineraries before departure and remain flexible to shift plans if necessary. As previously mentioned, there have been instances of anti-tourism protests that have directly targeted travelers, causing inconvenience and potential safety concerns. Therefore, it is highly recommended to stay informed about local events and avoid all demonstrations, regardless of size. Staying proactive by monitoring for planned demonstrations, mapping out intended routes and alternative routes, and being flexible with travel plans can make a significant difference in navigating unforeseen challenges.

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